In Germany, there are many people who cannot manage without a car, particularly in the countryside, where public transport networks can be patchy, nonexistent even. Transitioning to electric, or e-, vehicles will not solve the transportation problem on its own. Privately owned electric cars may not run on oil, but they still consume resources, take up space, require roads and parking areas.
But much could be resolved if people were able to switch to using robot taxis. For years now, countries like the USA and China have been running pilot projects with self-driving cars and driverless vans.
These vehicles are also being tested in Germany, but so far no approvals have been issued for so-called level 4 systems — completely autonomous cars with no driver at the wheel. The German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) says that legally it is possible, in Germany and in the EU as a whole, but until now the general introduction of these vehicles still seems a long way off.
Robotaxis from 2026, by VW
But now VW has surged ahead with a driverless e-van: the ID. Buzz AD (“autonomous driving”), a level 4 vehicle that drives set routes. Europe’s biggest car manufacturer presented the production version of the self-driving electric van in Hamburg on June 17. It is scheduled to go on the road in 2026. Initially, it will only be deployed in Hamburg and Los Angeles, but the intention is for it then to be rolled out more widely.
“This certainly has not been set up as a small series production,” says Christian Senger, a member of the board of management of VW Commercial Vehicles, who is responsible for its autonomous driving sector. The vans will be manufactured in very large numbers. The Hannover VW factory is set to produce more than 10,000 commercial vehicles. “We believe we can be the leading supplier in Europe,” Senger says.
VW already has a buyer, the Uber taxi service company. The two firms signed an agreement in April for cooperation in the US. According to Senger, Uber plans to purchase up to 10,000 VW e-vans over the next ten years.
Overtaking Tesla
VW has jumped ahead of Tesla with its ID. Buzz AD presentation. Earlier this month, Elon Musk “tentatively” announced June 22 — this Sunday — as the date for the launch of his own robotaxi, based on the Model Y SUV, but this is still unconfirmed. “We are being super paranoid about safety, so the date could shift,” Musk said at the time on his social media platform, X.
Tesla’s initial plans are for just 10 to 20 Model Y SUVs to operate as public robotaxis in one area of Austin, Texas, the city where Tesla is headquartered. But, as usual, Musk is thinking big. In an interview with US broadcaster CBS, he announced that there would be some 1,000 Tesla robotaxis on the road within months, and hundreds of thousands by the end of 2026.
Musk also announced in May that several US cities would be approved for autonomous driving for private Tesla owners before the end of the year. This promise is not new: Back in 2017, he promised that this function would be activated within two years.
Waymo: Google robotaxis miles ahead
Right now, Google affiliate Waymo is streets ahead when it comes to autonomous driving. Waymo’s driverless robotaxis are already on the road in several US cities, making more than 250,000 paid journeys with passengers every week. The vehicles are mostly converted electric cars made by Jaguar. Waymo also announced in May that it planned to more than double the number of vehicles by the end of 2026.
Tech giant Amazon is also in the running for the emerging market in autonomous driving. Amazon’s robotaxi company Zoox plans to put cars on the road in Las Vegas and San Francisco without steering wheels or pedals, with space for up to four passengers.
Competition from China
China is also looking to solve its transport problems through autonomous driving. The Google rival Baidu runs a fleet of around 1,000 Apollo Go robotaxis, which completed more than 1.4 million journeys in the first quarter of this year. The Chinese company Pony.ai has a fleet of more than 300 robotaxis, and it wants to increase this to as many as 3,000 by the end of next year. WeRide, meanwhile, has around 400 vehicles.
Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2030 there will be about half a million robotaxis in service in more than 10 Chinese cities. In China, the question is no longer whether autonomous driving is possible, but how companies will make commercial use of the sector’s rapid development.
Projections for the future are very promising. The investment bank puts the total sales potential of the Chinese robotaxi sector at around $54 million (€47 million) this year but expects that figure to increase exponentially by 2035, to around $47 billion.
VW focused on fleets, transport associations
VW’s new e-van is not aimed at private customers. Instead it hopes to supply business customers, fleet operators and transport associations, providing a package to include total software solutions, a booking app, fleet management and maintenance. In Hamburg, for example, the company has established cooperation with the local transport association, HVV. A declaration of intent has also been agreed with the Berlin transport authority, the BVG.
VW hopes to gain approval to operate driverless cars in Europe and the US by the end of 2026. This would mean they would no longer need a safety driver, currently a mandatory requirement. VW says it would be the first such approval for level 4 autonomous driving in Europe.
There is a catch though. VW’s Senger does not expect the top dog of Germany’s beleaguered auto industry to make any money, at least at first. In the long term, though, he explains that autonomous driving is the lucrative field of the future, one that promises to be much more profitable than the traditional automotive industry. “This is our big chance to establish a future opportunity for the VW Group,” he says.
The exact price has not yet been announced but the ID. Buzz AD is unlikely to come cheap. According to Senger, buyers will have to pay a low six-figure sum (in euros) per vehicle.
Public funding is needed
That means it’s going to be expensive for transport companies. The Association of German Transport Companies or VDV, is calling for a nationally coordinated strategy of long-term financing, and a market launch supported by public funding, to establish the country’s supremacy in this market.
The current government’s coalition agreement declares: “Germany is to become the leading market for autonomous driving, developing and co-financing model regions with the federal states.” Ingo Wortmann from the VDV comments that start-up funding of around €3 billion is needed to take this idea from pilot project to standrad operating procedure.
This article was originally published in German.
