A first-time Wimbledon champion will be crowned Saturday — and few would have predicted the two finalists. Will it be five-time major champion Iga Swiatek, who, until this season, has been notoriously weak on grass? Or it will be No. 13 seed Amanda Anisimova, an American who has blazed through the field, upsetting world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka on Thursday.
Our experts weigh in on how each could pull off the victory.
What can Anisimova do to defeat Swiatek?
Simon Cambers: For a start, Anisimova needs to serve well. There’s no way she’s going to beat Swiatek, in this form, if she doesn’t land a high percentage of first serves. Interestingly, the American’s win percentage on first serve has been dipping match on match, but on second serve it has been rising since the third round.
More than anything, Anisimova will need to relax because in her first Wimbledon final, there are bound to be nerves. Swiatek has played great here, looking like her former self, but there might still be a question if things get tight and her game starts to falter. Anisimova has to stay with Swiatek mentally and physically, show her she is not going away, even if Swiatek gets on a roll. And she needs to keep playing the way she has played all summer on grass. It might be her only chance to win a Wimbledon title, so she needs to go for it.
D’Arcy Maine: Anisimova certainly has the self-belief and, as Sabalenka mentioned Thursday, the bravery to win the Wimbledon title. She has had to fight throughout most of her run and she has been able to just find a way by being aggressive and taking chances in the toughest moments. She will need to bring all of that to the table Saturday — and then some.
But like Simon mentioned, for Anisimova, it might just come down to nerves in her first major final. On Thursday, she said she was going to try to not think about what was on the line in the match, but that’s easier said than done. She will need to find ways throughout to remain as composed and focused as possible, while understanding from the start that there will be moments, probably many of them, when the stakes come into play. How will she handle those?
If she can come in as prepared as possible, both strategically and mentally, she will have her best chance to complete her miraculous fortnight with the trophy.
Bill Connelly: Good serving is indeed going to be vital for Anisimova — Swiatek has just been obliterating second serves. She has won at least 58% of second-serve return points in five of six matches, and she’s a staggering 71% in her past two matches. Granted, Anisimova won 60% of her second-serve points against Sabalenka — she’s powerful enough that a second serve is only sort of a second serve — but Swiatek is seeing serves well, and Anisimova would be well-served to land her first serves.
But beyond that, the best thing Anisimova can do is pin Swiatek in backhand hell. Anisimova has the best backhand in women’s tennis. It’s an absolute cannon, and it’s the source of a lot of success in longer rallies. She’s a bit of a contradiction, playing some of the shortest points in the game on average but doing really well on longer points, and any longer backhand-versus-backhand rallies will end up favoring the American.
What can Swiatek do to defeat Anisimova?
Maine: Swiatek certainly has the advantage when it comes to experience, and that will help. Sure, she has never played in a Wimbledon final, but she has played in five other Slam finals — and won them all — so she knows what to expect leading in and all the emotions that come with it.
Because of her previous results at the All England Club, Swiatek hasn’t had the pressure or attention that she has had elsewhere, especially at Roland Garros, and that has probably helped her throughout. Now being the favorite, she will have to tune out all of the expectations and focus simply on what has gotten her to this point.
And that, of course, is her extraordinary play. After their semifinal match on Thursday, Belinda Bencic said she “would have had to play my absolutely best tennis of my life and risk every shot to beat her today the way she played,” and praised Swiatek’s speed, serve and the ability to completely dictate the match. If Swiatek can bring that same level and intensity, and continue to trust her newfound instincts on grass, the title seems well within her grasp.
Cambers: Continue to play the way she has been playing. Through her (relative) struggles on clay this year, the serve was where she was most vulnerable, breaking down at times, which then flooded through the rest of her game.
At Wimbledon she has served brilliantly, losing only six service games in six matches. She has won more than 70% of points on first serve in every match, topping 80% three times. If she serves that way, it’s hard to see Anisimova hurting her, but the second serve could get the treatment so she needs a high percentage.
No one moves better than Swiatek and it seems she has found the knack of moving well on grass, too, which spells trouble for Anisimova, who has great power but whose movement can be exposed if Swiatek gets her feet set. Swiatek can also use her greater experience, handling the nerves better.
Connelly: Yeah, no one is touching the version of Swiatek that we saw on court Thursday. She found a fifth gear. That said, she has played with fire a bit on her serve at times — she had to save 13 of 15 break points against Caty McNally in the second round and eight of 10 against Liudmila Samsonova in the quarterfinals. It’s great that she came through in those clutch moments, but that’s a lot of break points, and Anisimova has created double-digit break points with her return in every match of the tournament. Maybe Swiatek can keep playing with fire without getting burned, but that’s probably not something you want to count on with the way Anisimova has been playing.
Who will win?
Pam Shriver: Wimbledon junior champion Swiatek has found great grass-court form the past three weeks. Perhaps losing at Roland Garros, and not playing as many clay-court matches as other recent clay seasons, gave Swiatek more bandwidth and time to find her grass court confidence. Her movement looks more secure than other grass-court seasons, plus her more compact swings look punishing to her opponents. Unless Swiatek plays an anxious match, allowing Anisimova to play first strike tennis, Swiatek will be your the ninth different female champion in as many Wimbledons.
Cambers: As much as it would be a great story should Anisimova win, the head says Swiatek will come out on top. She has been there and done it, five times, and though this is a first Wimbledon final for her, too, she knows how to handle the biggest occasions. The irony of playing so well on grass, when clay did not go so well, will not be lost on her. But her coach, Wim Fissette, has a great record in producing winners, and together, their experience, quality and class can get her over the line.
Maine: I picked Swiatek at the start of the tournament — something I’ve been obnoxiously reminding anyone who will listen — and she has increasingly impressed me with her dominance and unflappable demeanor during the fortnight. It would be incredible if Anisimova were to win, and I do believe she will win a major title someday, but I don’t think it’s happening Saturday. Swiatek has the experience, the movement, the speed and the serve — and that will all prove to be too much for Anisimova. Swiatek in three sets.
Connelly: Swiatek has lost both of her finals in 2025. That has dropped her career record in finals to … 30-6. Otherworldly. If she makes it to this point in a tournament, she usually wins it. (Anisimova, meanwhile: 3-6 in finals.) Over the course of this Wimbledon fortnight, Swiatek has clearly grown more and more confident, and the hot, dry conditions have minimized a lot of the iffy movement and unreliable bounces that can drag down a natural clay-courter such as Swiatek on grass.
This appears to be the perfect time for her to snag her first Wimbledon title. Anisimova is hitting the ball so unbelievably well that she’s going to get a chance; in fact, I bet she takes a set. But I’m guessing Swiatek takes the other two.
