Trump moment takeaways for India: Strategic autonomy rises, neoliberalism declines

Donald J. Trump can be brutally forthright and publicly so. It is partly innate and partly a strategy to throw his interlocutors off balance. In a 1989 interview on CNN’s Larry King Live, Mr. Trump was asked by the host about his strategies for gaining an edge in negotiations. Mr. Trump responded not with a direct answer, but with a startling personal comment: “Can I move my chair? Because your breath is very bad. It really is… Has this ever been told to you before?” Years later, Mr. Trump explained that it was a demonstration of his negotiation tactics.

Mr. Trump’s outspokenness can be unsettling, but it can also be helpful. There are a few valuable lessons that Indian strategy could learn, thanks to the manner in which Mr. Trump conducts U.S. diplomacy.

Donald Trump’s worldview

Key elements of his worldview have largely remained consistent for decades. Even before he made an entry into politics, Mr. Trump was anti-trade, anti-war, cognizant of the economic and social challenges within the American society, and believed that all other countries were taking advantage of the U.S. He is trying to turn all those beliefs into policies with varying levels of success. However, what is remarkable is his ongoing exposition of American policy, which is too candid to be comforting for partners abroad. For his critics at home, it is what he says rather than what he does that is infuriating. All countries are scurrying to reposition themselves. It is a moment of reckoning for India.

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The idea that India’s hesitation to go into a complete strategic lock-in with the U.S. and to completely open its market is hindering progress in bilateral ties is commonplace because its proponents are influential. India, whether under Jawaharlal Nehru or Narendra Modi, has been reluctant to do either of these, and strategic autonomy has held the country in good stead. For one, alliances are not insulated from shifts in U.S. priorities over time, Trump or not. To cite one example, when Joe Biden was President, Australia scrapped a $90 billion deal with France to build conventional diesel-electric submarines. Instead, it entered the AUKUS pact with the U.S. and the U.K. to acquire nuclear-powered submarines using the U.S. technology.

All within the family, but hanging France out to dry. Mr. Trump, who is often portrayed as hostile to U.S. allies, is saying it all too loud.

India’s choice

Amid Mr. Trump’s rhetoric, India could be further incentivised to reinforce the idea of strategic autonomy, which remains the most viable framework for sustaining a robust relationship with the U.S. The Modi government has, in practice, followed the path of strategic autonomy. Both strategic autonomy and strategic subservience carry costs. India appears increasingly prepared to bear the cost of autonomy — rather than of subservience. Turning into a frontline of any U.S. strategy for containment of another country or expansion of its own interest can be fatal — ask Ukraine. Mr. Trump has done India a favour by silencing the call for abandoning strategic autonomy. If there was any doubt about strategic autonomy, the Trump moment has clarified it.

Mr. Trump wants to restore manufacturing and jobs in the U.S. and has, in the process, unsettled global trade. Access to its market has been a lever of American power for long, and Mr. Trump is just blunt about it. A trade deal may resolve some immediate issues, but India cannot ignore the reality that in a world where every country has turned protectionist, export-driven growth is a narrow and difficult path. Mr. Trump has made it amply clear that he does not want China being replaced by any country in U.S. supply chains. It will be foolhardy to assume that any future U.S. President will be fine with that either.

It is as if no country wants to import anything other than plastic toys and T-shirts. India could pay more attention to leveraging its domestic market to build its economy and manufacturing. Considering the rapid automation and the consequent limits of job growth in manufacturing, ‘making for the world’ is not sustainable for India, economist Raghuram Rajan has pointed out. Mr. Modi on Sunday exhorted Indians to augment domestic consumption. A domestic market-driven development model needs to be articulated strongly. The priority and the emphasis need to shift.

Ties with the U.S.

The Trump moment tells India two things — strategic autonomy is alive; and neoliberalism is dead. India has to navigate the path ahead, and the U.S. remains a key partner in that. It is reasonable to assume that the U.S. will remain the most powerful state on the planet for several decades to come. Relations with the U.S. will continue to be a major determinant of India’s capacity to realise its ambitions and make progress. Getting this one relationship right will be critical for India.

Neither obsequiousness nor confrontation can advance India’s relations with the U.S. India should also learn that soft power is supposed to be soft, not loud and screeching. As the yoga teacher would say, pranayama practice should not make any sound.