US airfields in the Pacific are critically vulnerable to China’s advanced long-range aviation and missile capabilities, risking devastating losses before a potential conflict even begins.
This month, the Hudson Institute think tank released a report saying that US airfields in the Western Pacific face critical vulnerability as China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has vastly outpaced US efforts to harden airfield infrastructure.
The Hudson Institute report says that while China’s military has doubled its hardened aircraft shelters to over 3,000 and added extensive runways, the US military has added two since the early 2010s. The report says this disparity leaves US airbases dangerously exposed to precision missile strikes, with most aircraft losses in a potential conflict expected to occur on the ground.
The report states that China’s fortification efforts enable sustained air operations under attack, posing a strategic advantage. In contrast, it points out that US reliance on Cold War-era approaches and minimal investment in airfield resilience increases operational risks and incentivizes Chinese aggression.
It recommends a multi-year campaign to harden US airbases, deploy active and passive defenses, and redesign force structures to operate from distant or dispersed locations. Without these measures, the Hudson Institute report warns that the US risks losing air superiority in the Indo-Pacific and faces a destabilizing strategic imbalance that could provoke preemptive Chinese military actions.
Further, The War Zone reported in December 2024 that the US Air Force’s new Installation Infrastructure Action Plan (I2AP) notably omits plans for new hardened aircraft shelters despite acknowledging that bases can no longer be considered sanctuaries and must operate under attack.
The War Zone notes that this absence is striking amid growing drone and missile threats, particularly from China. It says that while the I2AP emphasizes modernizing and right-sizing base infrastructure, improving resiliency against attacks and natural disasters, and enhancing power grid reliability, it leans towards flexibility and rapid recovery rather than physical hardening.
The report mentions that US Air Force officials argue that diversifying and proliferating assets is more effective than investing heavily in hardened structures. It mentions the high cost and limited effectiveness of hardened shelters against precision-guided weapons.
However, The War Zone points out that this approach contrasts with US Congress concerns, highlighted by a letter from 13 Republican lawmakers warning that most US aircraft losses in simulated conflicts with China occurred on the ground.
Asia Times reported in March 2024 that US lawmakers had raised alarms over the vulnerability of US airbase infrastructure in the Pacific to Chinese missile attacks, criticizing the US Department of Defense’s (DOD) sluggish response to the escalating threat.
In a letter dated May 2024, Representative John Moolenaar and Senator Marco Rubio urged US Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall and US Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro to expedite critical defense upgrades. They noted that China’s advanced missile capabilities now threaten all US bases in the region, including Anderson Air Force Base in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands.
The lawmakers also pointed out the US DOD’s slow adoption of passive defenses, such as hardened aircraft shelters, essential for withstanding and quickly recovering from potential attacks. Despite China constructing over 400 such shelters in the past decade, the US has added only 22.
The letter also criticized cumbersome regulations on handling World War II-era munitions, which delay essential construction projects and inflate costs. The lawmakers warned that failure to act could severely impair the US military’s operational capabilities in a conflict, particularly in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Discussing the consequences of underinvestment in hardened airbase infrastructure, Kelly Grieco and other writers mention in a December 2024 Stimson Center think tank report that Chinese missile strikes could cripple US air operations in the Indo-Pacific, targeting key runways and taxiways to disrupt sortie generation and aerial refueling at the outset of a conflict.
Grieco and others say that the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is capable of deploying ballistic and cruise missiles to close runways in Japan, Guam and other Pacific locations, potentially grounding fighter operations for up to 12 days and tanker operations for over a month.
They note that without operational tankers, US fighters would struggle to reach or return from critical combat zones such as the Taiwan Strait, while bombers may face significant delays due to reliance on distant bases. They say these disruptions could provide China with a strategic window to achieve its military objectives, such as seizing Taiwan, before US forces recover.
Underscoring the growing threat of Chinese long-range strikes on US airfields in the Pacific, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported in December 2024 that China is significantly expanding the reach of its missiles and warplanes, posing a growing threat to US interests in the Pacific.
According to the report, the PLA is enhancing its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy by increasing ballistic missiles and advanced aircraft. It adds that the PLA Navy (PLAN) and Air Force (PLAAF) are now operating more frequently and farther from China’s shores, leveraging new air refueling capabilities to extend their operational range.
The US DOD’s 2024 China Military Power report mentions that China’s long-range aviation and missile forces enjoyed significant advancements through last year, reflecting a continued emphasis on enhancing strategic deterrence and power projection.
The report says that the PLAAF has integrated the Y-20U aerial tanker, which expanded its ability to sustain long-range air operations by enabling international deployments and over-water missions into the Philippine Sea.
Concurrently, it says the PLAAF pursued the development of the H-20 stealth bomber, which is projected to achieve a global strike capability, marking a critical step in evolving China’s airborne leg of its nuclear triad.
Meanwhile, it notes that the PLARF diversified its inventory with hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) and modern intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) like the DF-27, capable of delivering nuclear and conventional payloads at ranges up to 8,000 kilometers. It says the DF-17 missile, equipped with HGVs, bolstered precision strike capabilities across the Western Pacific.
The report mentions these developments are supported by improvements in command and control, missile defense countermeasures, and space-based targeting technologies, underscoring China’s strategic focus on achieving military parity with global powers and deterring adversaries across multiple domains.
