Asteroid has one in 83 chance of hitting earth in 2032: astronomers

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An asteroid, called 2024 YR4, has a one in 83 chance of hitting earth within the next decade, according to astronomers.

The asteroid is estimated to be 58 metres (or more than 190 feet) wide, per NASA’s Eyes on Asteroids webpage, and takes just over four years to complete one solar orbit. The date given for its next closest approach to earth is Dec. 22, 2032.

2024 YR4 is ranked first on the the European Space Agency’s risk list, a catalogue of all objects with a non-zero impact probability. There are currently 1,744 near-earth asteroids on the list.

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The asteroid could come within 106,200 kilometres of earth in December 2032, according to a database in NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Space.com reported. Given the “orbital uncertainties,” this could mean a “direct hit” on earth, per the science publication.

“Such an impact could cause an explosion in the atmosphere, called an ‘airburst,’ or could cause an impact crater when it slams into the ground,” according to Space.com.

One astronomer, David Rankin, said in a post on social media that the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting earth “have slightly increased to 1 in 83.” Rankin is an engineer at the Catalina Sky Survey, a NASA-funded project based at the University of Arizona’s Lunar and Planetary Laboratory.

“This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever,” Rankin wrote on BlueSky. “Most likely outcome is still a near miss. We continue to track it!”

The Center for Near Earth Objects Studies (CNEOS) echoes Rankin’s calculations, indicating that the asteroid has a one in 83 chance of colliding with earth. In other words, there is a “98.8 per cent chance the asteroid will miss the Earth,” according to CNEOS.

By 2039, per calculations by CNEOS, the odds of impact decrease to 1 in 910,000.

Rankin told Space.com that the risk corridor — the region where an asteroid is most likely to hit earth — could be anywhere from South American across the Atlantic Ocean to Sub-Saharan Africa.

“It is just important to keep in mind that its orbit is still too uncertain to know if it will hit, and right now, the most likely outcome is a miss,” Rankin said. “This impact corridor estimation will eventually go stale with new observations and better orbit calculations.”

Astronomer Tony Dunn, who creates orbit simulations online, shared a path that 2024 YR4 could take on his X account this week.

“Uncertainty is still high and more and more observations are needed (to) confirm this,” he wrote.

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Although unlikely, the asteroid could cause damage if it collides with earth. The potential destruction it leaves behind has a lot to do with what it’s made of, which scientists are trying to figure out.

“If (it) is made of stony material, it could cause a significant air burst and fireball reaching the ground,” Rankin told Space.com. “If made of iron, it will punch right through the atmosphere with little trouble and make an impact crater. This is why understanding not just the orbit but also the composition and size are so critical.”

It will take time to gather more information about 2024 YR4. It is currently receding, but it will be back in view in late 2028, per space publication Sky & Telescope.

Specialist in asteroid observations Richard Binzel told the publication he was “optimistic” that scientists would “get good tracking data over the next several weeks” as more telescopes make an effort to follow it. Binzel is also the inventor of the Torino scale, which categorizes potential earth impact events.

2024 YR4 is rated three on the Torino scale out of 10, per CNEOS, which means it “merits attention by astronomers,” but “most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.”

Science publication EarthSky reported that 2024 YR4 was detected on Dec. 25, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), which has telescopes in Hawaii, Chile and South Africa.

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