As the deadline approaches for the end of phase one of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, the likelihood of the agreement making it to the scheduled second phase on March 1 looks increasingly remote. Middle East expert, Scott Lucas, addresses the key questions.
What are the chances of the ceasefire holding into phase two?
Even before Donald Trump’s proposal for the clearing and redevelopment – what would amount to the ethnic cleansing – of Gaza, an agreement to move from phase one to phase two at the start of March was an increasingly remote possibility.
We almost did not have a first phase. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had held out against a deal for months, and he was under pressure from two hard-right ministers – Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir – not to proceed.
In the end, Netanyahu acceded because of families seeking the return of their relatives held hostage by Hamas, and because of an approach by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff.
Smotrich stayed in the cabinet while Ben-Gvir left but his party said it would continue support for the government. However, both demanded that there be no second phase. They called instead for military action to eradicate Hamas and the resettlement of the population of Gaza – voluntary or otherwise.
In the next phase, the Israeli military is supposed to withdraw fully from Gaza while Palestinian governance is restored in the Strip. Israel and the US will demand that Hamas will leave power – indeed, the Israelis may call for Hamas leaders to leave the territory – and Hamas will refuse to do so.
Trump’s demand for an end of “occupation” of Gaza, not by the Israelis but by Gazans, confirmed the demise of the process. There is no chance that Hamas negotiators will agree to a “solution” in which most, if not all, residents are evicted.
That is why Trump, using the pretext of Hamas obstruction of phase one, stopped portraying himself as a “peacemaker” on Monday. Instead, he proclaimed: “All bets are off and let hell break out” — in effect, returning to a blank check for Israel’s military action, blockade of humanitarian aid, and mass killing across Gaza.
Is Donald Trump serious about redeveloping Gaza?
Many media outlets have been negligent in excusing Trump’s statements by saying alternatively that he is not serious or that he is “thinking outside the box” with his egregious statements.
Trump’s proposal for “development” of Gaza, clearing out the population, was not just a thought bubble. In his first term, he repeatedly spoke of North Korea’s “great beaches” and “waterfront property” as a prime location for condos and hotels.
In March 2024, his son-in-law Jared Kushner turned to the Middle East, saying: “Gaza’s waterfront property could be very valuable… From Israel’s perspective, I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up.”
Last summer, the Trump team asked Joseph Pelzman, a professor of economic and international affairs at George Washington University to propose a plan for the Strip. He summarised: “You have to destroy the whole place, you have to restart from scratch … It requires that the place be completely emptied out. I mean, literally emptied out.”
Within a week of returning to the White House on January 20, Trump was telling reporters that Gaza’s civilians should be removed from the “demolition site”. Just over a week later, alongside Netanyahu, he expanded on the declaration – reportedly in a statement written by Kushner.
What about international law?
Trump’s proposal is a clear violation of international law. The Geneva conventions stipulate that civilians should not be transferred outside of their territory unless it is “impossible” to do otherwise.
UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric told reporters: “Any forced displacement of people is tantamount to ethnic cleansing.”
But, the Trump administration does not appear to care about international law. Two days after his appearance with Netanyahu, Trump signed an executive order sanctioning the International Criminal Court.
Indeed, the administration does not believe it should face any legal oversight in the US. As Trump and Elon Musk attempt to destroy US agencies, with mass firings and seizure of records that may be unconstitutional and illegal, the US vice-president, J.D. Vance, maintains: “Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power.”
Trump, demanding the impeachment of a judge who ruled against the unauthorized access to records, said: “No judge should, frankly, be allowed to make that kind of a decision.”
Does the US have sufficient support to do this?
Absolutely not, especially if Trump tries to fulfill his declaration that the US should “own” Gaza. Apart from Israel, no country has given support to Trump’s proposal. And most Americans, even Trump backers, would be loath to have “ownership” which required intervention by US troops.
As for the countries Trump wants to send Palestinians to, they are vehement in their opposition. Within hours of Trump’s February 4 statement, he got a firm rebuttal from Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh cited “the Kingdom’s firm and supportive positions on the rights of the Palestinian people” and reinforced its recent shift to “firm and unwavering” support of a Palestinian state.
The foreign ministry emphasized that this was the position of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and noted his phone call with King Abdullah of Jordan as a sign of solidarity. After Netanyahu said the Saudis “have plenty of territory” for a Palestinian state, Riyadh denounced the “extremist, occupying mentality” that seeks to expel Palestinians from Gaza.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday in Washington that Arab states rejected Trump’s pitch. Abdelatty stressed the importance of Gaza’s reconstruction while Palestinians remained there.
And, on the eve of King Abdullah’s visit to Washington, Jordan expressed its “rejection of any attempts to annex land and displace the Palestinians.”
How do you see this developing in the foreseeable future?
Trump and the Israelis will now shift attention to Hamas as an existential threat that cannot be treated as a partner in a phase two ceasefire.
Phase one is due to expire on March 1. I predict that Israel will return to its open-ended war across Gaza, probably sooner than that.
And Trump, who only recently presented himself as a “peacemaker”, will give unconditional backing – while bemoaning that Gazans, up to 90% of them displaced from their homes, still won’t leave the Strip.
Scott Lucas is professor of international politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
