What to expect in a big weekend of men’s college hoops rematches todayheadline

There isn’t a 1 vs. 2 matchup to headline this weekend, but it remains a weekend of intriguing rematches that will have a sizable impact on conference races and NCAA tournament seeding.

The expansion of power conferences this season has meant we won’t necessarily see a round-robin schedule or two head-to-head matchups, so we had to revisit March 2024 for one instance.

But Kentucky vs. Alabama is guaranteed entertainment on the offensive end; Iowa State vs. Houston will be tough defensively; Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga is must-watch West Coast basketball; and St. John’s vs. UConn is classic Big East basketball at Madison Square Garden.

If you’re wondering why there’s no mention of Duke vs. Illinois (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox) at MSG, the Blue Devils and Illini haven’t played since December 2020. Tennessee at Texas A&M (Saturday, noon ET, ESPN) played twice last season, but there are five first-year transfers across both starting lineups. Meanwhile, Michigan-Michigan State (Friday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox) hasn’t played this season. With a new coach and roster, the Wolverines will battle the Spartans for first place in the Big Ten.

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break down what to expect in four big rematches this weekend.

All times are Eastern.

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Iowa State upsets Houston for Big 12 title

No. 7 Iowa State upsets No. 1 Houston in a blowout for the Big 12 championship.

Last meeting: Iowa State def. Houston 69-41 in last year’s Big 12 title game

What’s at stake: Houston’s road win at Arizona last weekend gave the Cougars a two-game lead over the Wildcats and Texas Tech in the Big 12 standings — leaving Kelvin Sampson on track to go 2-for-2 in regular-season championships since joining the league.

Iowa State has righted the ship since losing three in a row in late January and early February. While the Cyclones are likely out of the 1-seed and Big 12 title race, they’re very much in play for a 2-seed — and a chance to run the table during the rest of the regular season, too.

What’s changed since the first meeting? This is the only game without a head-to-head meeting this season. Yet, both teams have seen remarkable continuity from last season, in an era where teams are rebuilding every year. Houston has four starters back from the team that started the Big 12 title game, but its one roster change is massive: All-American Jamal Shead is gone, replaced by Milos Uzan. The Oklahoma transfer is playing his best basketball, though, averaging 13.9 points and 4.6 assists over his previous eight games.

Iowa State returned three starters from that game, as well as sixth man Curtis Jones, who returned to the bench with the return of Milan Momcilovic. TJ Otzelberger’s two new starters — Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson — have transformed the Cyclones’ offense.

What to expect this weekend: Expect a defensive battle. Houston has the top defense in the Big 12 and one of the five best in the country; Iowa State is third in the conference and in the top 10 nationally. The teams combined to score 100, 138 and 110 points in their three meetings last season (Iowa State won the first and last of those games).

Iowa State needs to take care of the ball to have a chance to win again. The Cyclones turned it over on at least 22% of their possessions in four of their six games entering Monday and rank 11th in the Big 12 in turnover percentage. Houston is the best in the league at forcing turnovers.

Meanwhile, will the Cougars continue to make shots from the perimeter? They rank ninth nationally in 3-point percentage and are the best shooting team Sampson has had since 2017, while 3-point defense has been a vulnerability for Iowa State. Four of the Cyclones’ previous eight opponents have made double-digit 3s. — Borzello

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Nelson, Sears lead Alabama past Kentucky

Grant Nelson and Mark Sears score 25 and 24 points, respectively, as Alabama picks up an impressive road win at Kentucky.

Last meeting: Alabama def. Kentucky 102-97 on Jan. 18

What’s at stake: For Alabama, this is another key matchup in a string of eight consecutive games against top-25 teams to end the regular season. But it has already lost the first two games of that stretch (Auburn, Missouri), so Kentucky represents an opportunity to stay in the hunt for the SEC title and, more importantly, maintain its case for a top seed in the NCAA tournament.

A short-handed Kentucky team has already proved itself with wins over multiple top-25 squads — though it has lost three of its past six games. Beating Alabama will boost the Wildcats’ odds of locking up a favorable tournament seed and potentially help avoid another tough first-round matchup.

What’s changed since the first meeting? Kentucky could be without its starting backcourt this time. In the first matchup, Jaxson Robinson and Lamont Butler combined to score 28 points but both could miss Saturday’s rematch due to injuries. That’s been Mark Pope’s greatest obstacle this season.

Alabama has been one of the nation’s best offensive teams. Coach Nate Oats moved Chris Youngblood (38% from beyond the arc in SEC play) into the starting lineup after defeating the Wildcats. The Tide have connected on 39% of their 3-point attempts in the seven games Youngblood has started but Alabama’s back-to-back losses are the result of a problematic defense (10th in the league) that has haunted the Tide for weeks.

The personnel changes from the first game could be the difference in the outcome Saturday.

What to expect this weekend: Both teams combined to manufacture one of the most breathtaking offensive displays of the season when they first met: Kentucky registered 124 points per 100 possessions and connected on 52% of its shots inside the arc and 40% of its 3-point attempts. And that wasn’t enough to outscore an Alabama squad that registered 131 points per 100 possessions, made 51% of its shots inside the arc and 38% of its 3-point attempts.

This time, the Wildcats will need to make Mark Sears uncomfortable, a daunting task for a team that might not have its best guards on the floor. But Sears is shooting just 35% in his team’s five losses.

Alabama can largely play the same style and win, especially since this game is at home. The last meeting was a 78-possession affair, a comfortable pace for Alabama against a now-shorthanded Kentucky squad. A few more stops will be beneficial, but Nate Oats has the comfort of knowing he defeated Kentucky at full strength in the first outing. — Medcalf

Luke Barrett with the putback 👏#GaelsRise pic.twitter.com/nuk4UNLv2F

— Saint Mary’s Hoops (@saintmaryshoops) February 2, 2025

Last meeting: Saint Mary’s def. Gonzaga 62-58 on Feb. 1

What’s at stake: Twice. That’s all. Since 2000, Gonzaga has only failed to win all or part of the West Coast Conference regular-season title twice: 2012, 2024. It’s the most dominant run in men’s college basketball. But Saint Mary’s edge in this season’s conference race is significant historically, and because another Gonzaga loss could expose the Bulldogs’ lukewarm résumé.

After a lopsided win over Baylor in its season opener, Gonzaga has secured just one top-50 KenPom win this season (San Diego State). Saint Mary’s has two (Gonzaga, Nebraska). The winner of this rematch will boost its résumé and potentially elevate its potential seed on Selection Sunday. The loser — especially if it’s Gonzaga — could find itself on the wrong end of a tough matchup in the opening round.

What’s changed since the first meeting? Augustas Marciulionis had to weather a weird midseason funk, punctuated by a 3-for-9 outing against the Zags. Since that game, however, Marciulionis has found his rhythm again and averaged 19.5 points in the four games entering this week’s slate.

That’s bad news for Gonzaga. But Graham Ike, who scored 24 points in the first meeting, leads a team that’s made strides since that loss, ranking 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency in that span. The improved defensive effort could be crucial in the rematch.

What to expect this weekend: Gonzaga has played at a top-50 tempo this season but was forced into its slowest game (61 possessions) by Saint Mary’s — which impacted the outcome. Mark Few’s program has to put itself in a position to push the pace this time. Plus, the energy of a home crowd should shift the vibe in this meeting.

Saint Mary’s was successful on the offensive glass (37% rebounding rate) and second-chance opportunities. That, along with keeping to their more methodical pace, could help the Gaels secure their third consecutive win against Gonzaga in the final WCC matchup before Gonzaga leaves for the Pac-12. — Medcalf

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Rick Pitino, Dan Hurley react to St. John’s win over UConn

Rick Pitino and Dan Hurley share their thoughts after St. John’s road win against Connecticut.

Last meeting: St. John’s def. UConn 68-62 on Feb. 7

What’s at stake: St. John’s is aiming for its first Big East regular-season championship since 1992, holding a 2.5-game lead in the league standings.

UConn’s hopes for a share of the Big East regular-season title were done after it suffered a shocking loss at Seton Hall on Saturday. The Huskies need to find consistency. They haven’t won two games in a row since the start of January, and their NCAA tournament seed is slipping.

What’s changed since the first meeting? Not a ton has changed. The biggest development is that Liam McNeeley has gotten more healthy. The teams’ first meeting was McNeeley’s first game back after missing eight games with an ankle injury, and while he finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds off the bench, he struggled to hit shots from the perimeter. He followed that performance with 38 points and five 3s against Creighton, so chances are McNeeley’s shooting woes won’t repeat themselves.

On the St. John’s side, it’s worth noting it allowed Villanova and Creighton to each surpass one point per possession — the first time since November that back-to-back opponents reached that mark.

What to expect this weekend: This is a matchup of the Big East’s best offense and best defense in conference play. UConn needs its big three to play well. Alex Karaban went for 20 against Seton Hall and showing signs of breaking out of his slump. Solo Ball was incredible while McNeeley was out, and he has to continue shooting it with confidence.

At the other end, can St. John’s dictate on the offensive glass? The Red Storm surprisingly didn’t have a ton of success on second-chance opportunities in the first meeting given they’re the best offensive rebounding team in the league and UConn has struggled on the glass at times. Their lack of shooting from the perimeter makes it imperative that they get easy baskets around the rim. If it’s a close game, Rick Pitino will like his chances, thanks to the recent forms of Kadary Richmond and RJ Luis Jr. — Borzello