Europe digital editor in Berlin
ReutersFriedrich Merz’s conservatives have won Germany’s election, well ahead of rival parties but short of the 30% vote-share they had expected.
“Let’s celebrate tonight and in the morning we’ll get to work,” he told cheering supporters. He said he was “aware of the responsibility that now lies ahead” of him.
The other winner was the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), who are celebrating a record second-place result of 20.8%.
The AfD’s candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, did a victory lap of her supporters, but even her party had hoped for a greater result and the mood at AfD HQ was subdued.
As results came in during the early hours of Monday, it became clear the AfD was far ahead of the other parties in the east, with a projected 34% according to a survey for public broadcaster ZDF.
“Germans have voted for change,” said Alice Weidel. She said Friedrich Merz’s attempt to forge a coalition would ultimately end in failure: “We’ll have fresh elections – I don’t think we’ll have to wait another four years.”
But just as the election map turned light blue in the east, much of the rest of Germany turned black – the colour of the CDU.
After the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition late last year, Merz had asked the electorate for a strong mandate to form a clear-cut coalition with one other party.
That would enable him to solve as many of Germany’s problems as he could in four years, he said, from a stagnant economy to closing its borders to irregular migrants.
German voters had other ideas. They came out in big numbers, with a 83% turnout not seen since before reunification in 1990, but Merz’s Christian Democrats had been looking for more than the 28.6% of the vote they and their Bavarian sister party received.
Merz has ruled out working with the AfD. There is a taboo or “firewall” preventing mainstream parties in Germany from operating with the far right.
But his most likely partner, the Social Democrats, have suffered their worst ever result with 16.4%.
Their leader, outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, said the election results were a bitter defeat for the party, and he would not be taking part in negotiations for a coalition.
Because of the CDU’s relatively lacklustre performance, there was initially some doubt that two parties would be enough for a coalition.
Germany has just been through four years of a three-party coalition and the only other realistic partner was the Greens, whose leader, Robert Habeck, Merz had ridiculed as a “representative for heat pumps” on the eve of the vote.
Merz, 69, has never held a ministerial job, but he has promised if he becomes the next German chancellor to show leadership in Europe and beef up support for Ukraine.
Most Germans have been shocked by the open backing that billionaire Elon Musk and US Vice-President JD Vance have given Alternative for Germany in the election. Vance was accused of meddling in the vote during a visit to Munich, while Elon Musk made repeated remarks on his X platform.
It did Alice Weidel and her party no harm at all, as the AfD enjoyed a 10-point increase in support on four years ago. But she also benefited from a successful TikTok campaign, that drew in big numbers of young voters.
Nevertheless, President Donald Trump welcomed Merz’s victory. He said it was proof that Germans were, like Americans, tired of “the no common sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration”.
If it was an overture, Merz did not take it as one. He told a roundtable TV discussion on Sunday night that it had become clear in the past week that the Trump administration was “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe”.
Trump has bizarrely described Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator” and he appeared to accuse Kyiv of starting the war, which Russia unleashed on its neighbour exactly three years ago.
Merz said his “absolute priority” would be to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can achieve real independence from the US step by step”.
Merz’s victory was quickly welcomed across much of Europe. France’s Emmanuel Macron spoke of uniting at a time of uncertainty to “face the major challenges of the world and our continent”, while UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer sought to “enhance our joint security and deliver growth for both our countries”.
Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats continue to rely on older voters for their success, while voters aged 18-24 appear to be far more interested in both the AfD and another party, the Left, which surged in the polls in recent weeks.
Not long ago the Left was heading out of the parliament with poll numbers well below the 5% threshold.
But a series of TikTok videos showing co-leader Heidi Reichinnek giving fiery speeches in parliament went viral and they ended up close to 9%, and a quarter of the younger vote, according to an ARD survey.
