Rome CNN —
When Benedict XVI became the first pope to resign in 600 years it sent shockwaves through the Catholic Church. Now, after spending two weeks in hospital battling pneumonia, the speculation in the Vatican is whether his successor Pope Francis might do the same.
“I think the only circumstances under which he (Francis) would consider resignation, as he has said, would be if he had a long-term degenerative or debilitating condition which prevented him from fully carrying out the papal ministry,” Austen Ivereigh, a papal biographer, told CNN.
The pope was put on a breathing machine on Friday, after suffering a sudden episode of respiratory difficulty, the Vatican said. The episode was complicated by vomiting, some of which the pope aspirated, it added. A Vatican source said on Friday the next 24-48 hours will determine whether the pope’s general condition has deteriorated. On Saturday morning, Francis was said to be resting, after what the Vatican called a peaceful night.
Resigning the papacy is not like stepping down from being the president of a company or CEO of a large corporation. There are no term limits, no board, and it is considered a job for life. For Catholics, the pope is St. Peter’s successor, carrying out a ministry given by Christ himself. Yet the papacy is also an office and advances in modern medicine and life expectancy have presented a new scenario. It also remains unclear how long the 88-year-old pope will remain in hospital or his long-term prognosis.
Ivereigh insisted that being an elderly or frail pope is not an impediment, nor would the Catholic Church want a precedent to be set that when a pope reaches a certain age or degree of ill health he must step down. Moreover, the biographer explained, this pope is “all in and full on” and would not want a dramatically pared down papacy.
This week brought back memories of that dramatic day, on February 11, 2013, when Benedict XVI, born Joseph Ratzinger, announced he was stepping aside. It all happened in what was assumed to be a routine meeting of cardinals – known as a consistory – to vote on sainthood causes. At the end of that meeting, the German pope started speaking in Latin and stunned those present as he told them he was resigning. Some cardinals started leaning over to each other to ask if they had heard him correctly.
Parallels were drawn with Benedict’s resignation when the Vatican on Tuesday announced Francis had called a consistory at an unspecified date to consider sainthood candidates. He had done this during a meeting at the hospital where he is being treated with some of his most senior officials Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Holy See Secretary of State, and Archbishop Edgar Peña Parra, effectively the papal chief of staff.
“After the surprise of Ratzinger’s resignation, consistories in certain difficult periods of the church now became highly political,” said Marco Politi, a respected Vatican commentator and author of a new book on Francis’ papacy “The Unfinished.”
“I believe that, at the moment, the pontiff is focused on the prospect of surviving the crisis and being able to complete the Jubilee (year). On his 89th birthday he will be forced to ask himself the question if he is still fit to lead the church.’” The Catholic Church is in the middle of a year-long jubilee celebration, an event traditionally held every 25 years.
Francis likes to keep people on their toes and will have known that announcing the consistory would set off plenty of speculation. The pope is unlikely to have wanted to reveal his hand on such a big decision.
“For Francis, the freedom to discern these questions is absolute,” Ivereigh said.
Freedom is important because according to church law a papal resignation is a decision that must be “made freely and properly manifested” and is not to be “accepted by anyone.” A pontiff cannot come under outside coercion or pressure when making his decision.
In the past, Francis has said the papacy is “ad vitam” (meaning “for life” in Latin) and that resignation is not on his agenda. Nevertheless, he has never ruled out resigning and said Benedict’s decision had “opened the door” to future popes retiring.
A conclave is called in the same way following a resignation as with a papal death, however in 2013 Benedict amended the law to allow the election to take place sooner.
The Argentinian pope is driven by a deep sense of mission and since being in hospital has shown a determination to recover, despite battling pneumonia in both lungs. Archbishop Paul Gallagher, the Vatican foreign minister, pointed out this week that a papal resignation is not on the cards and that Francis will give everything to recover.
“If God’s will is that he should get better, wonderful,” he told America, a Catholic publication. “If it’s God’s will that he shouldn’t, well then, he will accept that. That is the spirit of his life…”
This pope often pulls off surprises. And if Francis were to step down, it’s highly likely he’d do so when people were least expecting.
