In normal times, this election probably wouldn’t be of too much interest to the rest of the world. Around 40,000 voters choose just 31 parliamentarians, and it’s all taking place on an island that isn’t even fully autonomous.
But these are not normal times and this election is in Greenland on March 11, which means it could prove a starting point for further geopolitical upheaval in the Northern Hemisphere.
Firstly, because supporters of independence for Greenland hope the ballot may result in a strong mandate for Greenland’s complete separation from Denmark. Currently Greenland, a former Danish colony, is a self-governing territory of the latter.
And secondly, and probably most importantly, because US President Donald Trump has been talking about making Greenland part of the US ever since he was elected last November.
Greenland’s mineral wealth
Trump has frequently spoken of how it would be in the interests of US security to control Greenland. Since the 1950s, the US has run the Pituffik Space Base, in the northwest of Greenland.
It is the Americans’ northernmost post and plays a key role in missile warnings and space surveillance. Previously, during the Cold War, it was called the Thule Air Base and was there to send early warnings and initiate defense against potential Soviet attacks.
Other than security issues, economics might also play a part in Trump’s claims on Greenland. In the south of Greenland, there are thought to be valuable deposits of oil, gas, gold, uranium and zinc.
Thanks to climate change, which is thawing Greenland’s ground out, mining these deposits will eventually become easier.
During his first term in office, in 2019, Trump offered to buy Greenland. The government in Denmark swiftly rejected that.
But this term, Trump has continued to express expansionist intentions, over Canada, the Panama Canal and Gaza, as well as Greenland.
Even before he took up office in January, Trump sent his son, Donald Trump Jr., to Greenland — although officially he was there as a tourist.
A few weeks later, a poll was published showing that only 6% of Greenlanders wanted their island to become part of the US, while 85% opposed to the idea.
In his speech to Congress early in March, President Trump addressed his desire again, directing his comments to the people of Greenland.
“We strongly support your right to determine your own future,” Trump said. But just two sentences later, he seemed to renege on that, stating, “I think we’re going to get it [Greenland] — one way or the other, we’re going to get it.”
Foreign interference?
Given this, Greenland has had to deal with the possibility that there could be external attempts to influence the country’s vote — for instance, from Russia or China, both of whom are also pursuing their own security agendas in the Arctic.
Denmark’s national security and intelligence service, PET, warned of Russian disinformation in particular.
“In the weeks preceding the Greenlandic elections’ date announcement, several cases of fake profiles were observed on social media, including profiles masquerading as Danish and Greenlandic politicians, which contributed to a polarization of public opinion,” PET stated, although it did not link those accounts to any specific country.
Johan Farkas, an assistant professor in media studies at the University of Copenhagen, is familiar with these kinds of posts as they also circulate in Russian media. But he doesn’t think they’d have much impact on Greenland’s election because, besides Danish, most locals speak Greenlandic, an Inuit language.
“Greenland is a very small and tight-knit community in many ways,” Farkas told DW. “And so, influencing fake accounts, or these kinds of things that we have seen in the past and in other elections, my assessment is that it’s not an easy thing to do.”
But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to worry about. “My concern as a disinformation researcher has more been around how this plays out in macro-politics. Would we suddenly see Elon Musk hosting live podcast interviews with specific candidates or Trump endorsing specific candidates? That is a very problematic and threatening thing for a free and fair election,” Farkas argues, referring to the weeks before Germany’s own recent federal election.
During that time, US billionaire Musk appeared on social media with the leader of Germany’s far-right political party and US Vice President JD Vance called on German centrist parties to cooperate with the far right.
Political controversies
Since the beginning of the year, there have been a number of controversies around Greenland’s upcoming election. Reports suggest that influencers from Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement distributed $100 bills in Greenland’s capital, Nuuk.
Local member of parliament Kuno Fencker traveled to Washington where he met a Republican politician who spoke to him about how Greenland should become an American territory.
Media studies professor Farkas doesn’t think the danger has passed — the election will be held on March 11. “But,” he says, “I was more concerned about a month ago than I am right now.”
In early February, Greenland’s parliament, the 31-seat Inatsisartut, passed a law banning foreign and anonymous donations to local political parties. Danish donations are excluded.
And Trump’s offer to buy their country is not the only thing locals will be voting on in the upcoming election.
Independence from Denmark
The approximately 57,000 Greenlanders, who call themselves Kalaallit, are also worried about other issues. For example, which mineral resources their island should be developing and whether, and which, foreign partners should get concessions to do this.
The debate around mining revenues is part of the argument some make for becoming independent from Denmark. Allowing foreign interests to mine in Greenland would make Greenland less dependent on Denmark.
This is because “Denmark contributes over half of Greenland’s budget revenue to cover employment, health care, and education, with the annual cost of administrative support and direct financial transfers amounting to at least $700 million [€645.5 million] per year,” researchers at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed out in January.
Independence is a long-term goal, Greenlandic Prime Minister Mute Egede said after Trump’s speech to Congress. “We do not want to be Americans, nor Danes; we are Kalaallit. The Americans and their leader must understand that,” Egede wrote on social media. “We are not for sale and cannot be taken. Our future is determined by us in Greenland.”
Opinion polls show that the majority of Greenlanders probably do want independence from Denmark but they remain undecided as to when and how that will happen.
And that uncertainty won’t change after the March 11 election either, says Farkas. “I think the most important thing is to zoom out and acknowledge that this is not a threat that goes away the moment this election is over,” he concluded.
“As long as this declared US wish to take over Greenland is there, there is a risk that we suddenly see an escalation of this kind of influence campaign.”
This story was originally written in German.
