“What we invest in defense actually shows how we value defense. And for that past decade we haven’t put a very high importance on it,” said EU foreign representative Kaja Kallas when she presented the bloc’s new defense strategy in Brussels on Wednesday. The Estonian diplomat said the world has not experienced such turbulent times since 1945, and that it was time to act.
The European Commission presented its strategy paper as a blueprint to bolstering the defense capabilities and readiness of the EU and its member states by 2030. According to the so-called paper, one of the main drivers for the initiative is Russian belligerence. “If Russia is allowed to achieve its goals in Ukraine, its territorial ambition will extend beyond,” said the paper. “Russia will remain a fundamental threat to Europe’s security for the foreseeable future, including its more aggressive nuclear posture and the positioning of nuclear weapons in Belarus.”
But the strategy paper alone will not deter Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Andrius Kubilius, the EU’s recently appointed and first-ever defense commissioner, meaning it’s all the more important that the targets outlined in the paper are met. Kubilius warned that numerous European intelligence agencies have said it’s likely Moscow will test NATO’s resolve on the Article 5 mutual defense guarantee by 2030.
But the strategy isn’t solely devoted to the topic of Russia. An increasingly aggressive China, uncertainty in the Middle East due to the fall of Bashar Assad in Syria and the conflict in Gaza are also addressed, as well as the threat posed by cyberattacks or acts of sabotage carried out on infrastructure.
EU aiming to expand military capabilities
The report identifies critical areas in which member states must do more to enhance capabilities and improve the bloc’s defenses — including air and missile defense, artillery systems, drones and military transport capabilities. The EU also plans to mobilize hundreds of billions of euros to make this possible.
The Commission emphasized that member states will still hold the reins when it comes to national defense decisions, but said it’s keen to make sure resources are used as efficiently as possible. Part of that will mean developing, manufacturing and marketing shared weapons systems. A major problem with Europe’s defenses is the sheer number of different — often incompatible — systems currently in use across the bloc.
Just two weeks ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented her own “ReArm Europe” plan designed to distribute some €800 billion ($866 billion) in EU defense spending over the next few years. The plan would allow EU member states to take on increased debt equivalent to up to 1.5% of GDP for defense spending, generating some €650 billion. A further €150 billion will be made available to member states in the form of EU loans.
Some EU member states will be afforded special conditions for cheap loans. Money from these funds is intended to spur shared defense purchases between different EU member states and their partners, such as Norway or Ukraine. The funds can be used to make purchases from EU-based manufacturers, or for items with 65% of their components originating in the EU.
The defense industry has welcomed the plan, especially the idea of bundled acquisitions. The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe, a lobbying group, said long-term perspectives were key to planning security.
EU support for Ukraine remains key
A key aim of the new EU strategy is the continued support of Ukraine in its fight against Russia. The paper outlines what it calls a “porcupine strategy” for Kyiv, meaning EU partners aim to arm Ukraine “so that it is able to deter any possible further attacks and ensure a lasting peace.”
The strategy paper also clearly states that Ukraine will remain at the front line when it comes to European security and defense, and will remain “a key theatre to define the new international order with its own security interlinked with that of the European Union.”
Beyond straightforward military support — such as supplying 2 million rounds of artillery annually, or providing air defense systems — the EU aims to give further assistance by including Kyiv in EU initiatives.
Expanding partnerships in NATO and beyond
The paper also addresses the changing role of the US as a strategic partner. Although Washington is still referred to as a strong, traditional ally, the paper makes clear that the US will scale back its obligations as Europe’s “primary security guarantor.”
As Defense Commissioner Kubilius told reporters, “450 million Europeans should not have to depend on 340 million Americans to defend themselves against 140 million Russians who can’t defeat 38 million Ukrainians.”
Bilateral dialog with the US continues, as does cooperation in a number of areas — some of which has even increased. The EU paper also calls for increased cooperation among NATO partners, as well as with nations like India, when it comes to security and defense. Recommendations put forth in the paper are now set to be discussed by member states.
This article was originally written in German and translated by Jon Shelton.
