The news that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic fell ill during his visit to the United States at the weekend and abruptly cut short his trip reverberated through Belgrade like a political earthquake.
According to the official version of the story, Vucic experienced severe chest pain and high blood pressure while in Florida, prompting an urgent return to Belgrade.
He was admitted to hospital in the Serbian capital on Saturday, where his condition was deemed stable, but doctors advised rest, and all upcoming appointments were postponed.
But before the presidential plane even touched the ground in Belgrade, speculation was rife: What was the real purpose of the trip? Was it an official or a private visit? And had Vucic really fallen ill, or was the story a cover for a failed diplomatic endeavor?
On state or personal business?
Finance Minister Sinisa Mali, who accompanied Vucic to Florida, said that the purpose of the visit had been to address economic issues.
Yet the event at which Serbia’s top leadership hoped to resolve “state problems” was a meeting of the Republican National Committee and a donor dinner hosted by US President Donald Trump.
Vucic allegedly intended to use the occasion for an informal encounter with Trump.
Was diplomatic protocol bypassed?
Ivan Vujacic, Serbia’s long-time ambassador to the US, told DW that standard diplomatic protocol appears to have been bypassed completely.
“It’s not common practice for heads of state to attend party meetings. Foreign representatives typically attend party conventions only upon an official invitation issued through the State Department,” explained Vujacic.
Some sources now claim that Vucic was even denied entry to the event at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, despite having paid for access, while former diplomat Nebojsa Vujovic stated in the media that the decision was made by the head of Trump’s cabinet.
“It seems to me this visit was arranged through informal channels — some lobbying groups, friends, acquaintances — bypassing the official ones. Because if it’s true that he expressed a desire to attend a fundraiser meeting, someone would have pointed out that this is not allowed under the laws of the country he was visiting — in this case, the United States,” said Vujovic.
Is US support for Serbia waning?
Vuk Vuksanovic of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy holds a similar view. Vuksanovic does not, however, rule out the possibility that the US administration has revoked its support for Vucic’s regime — something that may become clearer in the coming months.
“For now, this most resembles a failed improvisation. If it turns out that Vucic went there merely to secure a photo with Trump without a formally scheduled meeting, it shows just how politically weakened and wounded he is by the current situation in Serbia,” Vuksanovic told DW.
“He seems to be desperately seeking out international leaders and events that might allow him to project the image of a globally recognized statesman, in the hope of shoring up his standing at home,” said Vuksanovic.
Dodging a Moscow visit?
Former Ambassador Vujacic believes Vucic’s plan was to meet Trump first, then travel to Moscow for the May 9 Victory Day Parade, thereby sending a signal to the European Union that he has powerful friends elsewhere — US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping — to whom he can turn to regardless of Brussels’ warnings.
But after the collapse of the US part of his plan, some interpret Vucic’s health scare as a convenient excuse to also avoid travelling to Moscow.
EU opposition to a Vucic visit to Moscow
The EU’s response to the mere suggestion that Vucic might visit Moscow was exceptionally sharp. EU officials warned that participating in Russia’s military parade could seriously jeopardize Serbia’s EU membership aspirations.
“To go to Moscow and celebrate with Putin or his military, which is killing people in Ukraine, is utterly opposed to European values and runs counter to the decision made by the EU Council in 2022 that member states should refrain from any actions that could lend legitimacy to Putin and Russia,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said during a recent visit to Serbia.
She reiterated that Serbia, as a candidate country, must fully align its foreign and security policies with the EU by the time of accession.
Vucic, however, insists he will not change course under EU pressure.
“I said eight months ago I would go to Moscow. I’ll probably be the only one going. I don’t want Djuro Macut’s government to pay the price. I want him to have a chance to work with the EU properly, so no one can criticize him. The army likely won’t go, because it would come under various attacks and sanctions,” Vucic said on TV Pink on April 23.
Image-driven diplomacy?
Whether Vucic will actually travel to Moscow depends on a number of factors — including whether Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will attend the parade, says Vuksanovic.
In recent days, Fico has repeatedly canceled scheduled public appearances, sparking speculation about a deterioration in his health and casting doubt on his previously announced trip to Moscow.
“Vucic’s original philosophy was that Washington and Moscow are more important than Brussels, but now he’s trying not to lose the support of any major international actor, because he is politically wounded,” said Vuksanovic, who went on to say that at present, nothing in Serbian diplomacy is driven by genuine foreign policy logic. Instead, he says, the purpose of Serbia’s foreign policy is to repair Vucic’s “political marketing” image as a leader.
But amid rising tension at global level, his room to maneuver is becoming increasingly limited.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
