AMD (AMD) will report its first quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, providing a look at the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on chip sales and a look at the health of the AI trade ahead of Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings later this month.
AMD’s announcement follows rival Intel’s (INTC) report, which saw the company beat on the top and bottom lines, but issue lighter than anticipated revenue guidance in the second quarter. At the time, Intel CFO David Zinsner blamed the “current macro environment” for creating “elevated uncertainty across the industry.”
PC makers produce a number of their products in China, as well as Vietnam and Malaysia. Computers are currently exempt from Trump’s tariffs, but the administration has said it could implement duties on semiconductors based on the results of the Commerce Department’s Section 232 investigation.
For the quarter, AMD is expected to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.94 on revenue of $7.1 billion. The company saw EPS of $0.62 and revenue of $5.4 billion in the same quarter last year. Data Center segment revenue is expected to bring in $3.6 billion in the quarter compared to $2.3 billion last year.
In April, AMD, like Nvidia (NVDA), announced that the Trump administration instituted tighter export controls on AI chips destined for China. The move effectively cuts off AMD’s ability to ship its MI308 AI processor to the region, and, according to the company, might result in as much as an $800 million charge on inventory, purchases commitments, and related reserves.
And that could weigh on the company’s Q2 outlook.
“We expect AMD to post higher results and guide lower given 1Q strength for MI308, but turning into a headwind in 2Q with the AI chip ban into China,” KeyBanc analyst John Vinh wrote in an investor note ahead of AMD’s earnings announcement.
AI stocks took a major hit over the past few months on fears that the trade has been overhyped. DeepSeek’s January announcement that it managed to produce high-performance AI models using less than top-of-the-line chips further hammered chip stocks.
Shares of AMD are off 18% year-to-date and 36% over the last 12 months. Nvidia is down 15% year-to-date, but still up 22% over the last year.
“Unfortunately for AMD the AI story, already somewhat tenuous, is likely to take another material haircut on the back of new China sanctions (note that every $1B is ~25 cents in earnings) and overall remains uncompetitive in our view,” Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote in an investor note.
AI chip companies are also staring down the government’s AI diffusion rules, which would require certain countries to acquire special licenses to gain access to a limited number of US AI chips.
