The IDF said that they carried out an airstrike after gunmen opened fire toward IDF forces in southern Syria. “This morning (Tuesday), IDF troops identified several terrorists who opened fire toward them in southern Syria. The troops returned fire in response and the IAF struck the terrorists. Hits were identified,” the IDF said.
This is an escalation along the border. The fact that there were several gunmen involved on the Syrian side could mean that threats are emerging near the border. The IDF took over a buffer zone along the border on December 8 when the Syrian regime fell. Israel’s Prime Minister has said that southern Syria must be demilitarized. Israeli politicians and officials have threatened the new government of Syria in the last two months. There have been numerous IDF strikes in Syria as well. The latest strikes targeted the T-4 air base near Palmyra which is not in southern Syria but rather in the Syrian desert.
The full details of the clash on March 25 are beginning to emerge. The IDF says it identified gunmen who had opened fire. The IDF then returned fire and carrier out a drone strike. At least five people were killed in Syria. The clash took place near Kuwaya in Dara’a governorate. This village is located in the Yarmouk basin, a valley formed by the Yarmouk river that flows near the Golan border in Syria. It also flows near the Jordanian border. This is a sensitive area. It is also an area that is far from Damascus and hard for the new Syrian government to control. With Israel’s warnings to Damascus it seems unlikely the new Syrian government will be able to control these areas with many forces, leaving a power vacuum.
To understand the geography here, the Yarmouk basin is a valley and it is below the heights of the Golan. The village of Kuwaya (also spelled Koayiah) is right near the river itself and is about a mile from the Israeli border. It is several miles from route 98 which is the major north south road on the Golan. It is also several miles from the Israeli communities of Nov, Avnei Eitan and Eliad. Kuwaya is also right on the Jordanian border. It is near several other Syrian towns that are all sandwiched in a kind of triangle of Syrian territory between the Israeli Golan and Jordan. These villages include Ma’rbah, Beit Irah, Aabdyn, Jamlah and Ash Shajarah.
Another feature in this area is the Al-Wehda Dam. The dam is on the Jordanian border just south of the town of Hayt. East of here is the regional capital of Dara’a and also other important towns such as Nawa, Tasil and Tafas. During the Syrian civil war this area was contested between Syrian rebel groups, the Syrian regime and also other extremist groups that emerged. A group called Jaysh Khalid Ibn Walid formed in this area in 2016. It became an ISIS affiliate. It was made up of members of other groups that had been active in the Yarmouk basin, including the Yarmouk Martyr’s Brigade, the Islamic Muthanna group and Jaysh al-Jihad. It clashed with the IDF in 2016. In 2018 the Syrian regime defeated Jaysh Khalid and returned to this area. Over the last years the Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah all backed the Syrian regime and Hezbollah sought to threaten Israel from areas near the Golan.
When the Syrian regime fell on December 8, the former Syrian rebel groups in Dara’a supported the new government of Ahmed Shara’a that formed in Damascus.
Power vacuum may emerge
It’s not clear if elements linked to the former groups that operated in Yarmouk basin have now re-appeared. Israel’s demand that the area be demilitarized seems to mean that a vacuum in power will emerge. When there is a vacuum then many threats will enter the area. That is the problem in southern Lebanon and also in Gaza and the northern West Bank. In all these areas there are terrorists who have emerged.
Media in the region are closely watching what happened in the Yarmouk basin on March 25. For instance the Hezbollah media Al-Manar has said that “five Syrians were martyred” in the IDF strike. Hezbollah wants to use this apparently to show it backs Syrians, after having had to leave Syria when the Syrian regime fell. Iran’s Press TV said that seven people were killed. The pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen has also been reporting on the clash. The pro-Iranian reports say the men who were killed did not fire on the IDF. Clearly Iran is seeking to exploit this incident.
According to reports the clash in Kuwaya also took place as the IDF is carrying out ground operations in this area near the border. The IDF has been trying to remove weapons and has also carried out strikes on former Syrian regime posts that used to be occupied by the Syrian army near the border. Now this area appears to be a kind of free-for-all as the IDF seeks to exert influence and control.
The IDF said on March 25 that “the Paratroopers Brigade, under the command of the 210th Division, continue defensive activity to remove threats in Syria.” The report added that “in recent weeks, troops from the Paratroopers Brigade’s combat team, along with soldiers from the Yahalom Unit, operated in several locations following intelligence indications and located numerous weapons including: explosives, ammunition, mortar shells, military vests, combat equipment, munitions, and bullets. All of the items that were located were confiscated and dismantled. Troops of the 210th Division remain deployed in the area in order to protect the citizens of the State of Israel, particularly in the Golan.”
It’s unclear if these operations will lead to calm or if it could backfire and lead to elements entering areas such as the Yarmouk Basin and threatening Israel.
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