The clashes between India and Pakistan this week have raised concerns that the two nuclear-armed states could be careening toward a wider war.
At the same time, the clashes have given observers a chance to look at how Western and Chinese military systems measure up on the modern battlefield.
China is the rising military power today. Western military and defense technology is still considered among the best in the world. There are other producers of defense technology, such as Israel, that are closely linked to the Western defense architecture.
What is happening between India and Pakistan is more interesting in some ways than similar clashes during the Cold War that pitted Soviet-armed states against Western-armed states.
For instance, the Iran-Iraq war saw Saddam’s army, using mostly Soviet equipment, face off against Iran’s army that had some legacy Western platforms, such as its air force that it had inherited from the Shah.
In addition, the Arab-Israeli wars pitted Western military platforms against Soviet arms in Syria and Egypt. There are other examples.
Today, no one knows how the Chinese stack up against Western allies such as South Korea or the United States itself.
Countries such as Australia, India, and others are rushing to arm themselves and keep up with China. Pakistan is an interesting case because, historically, it acquired Western arms. However, in recent decades, it has shifted more toward China.
Pakistan has always had amicable relations with China, but today, China is a much more powerful country than it was in the 1970s when the relationship was younger. India was part of the non-aligned movement, but was tacitly closer to Russia in the past. Today, it is growing closer to the West, and it is a partner of Israel.
The fog of war in India-Pakistan clashes
The reports about the India-Pakistan clashes are shrouded in the fog of war.
Reports say India has lost one or more warplanes. Reports also talk about clashes using drones. Drones have increasingly come to dominate the modern battlefield. Most of the drones being used today are loitering munitions or types of one-way kamikaze drones. Loitering munitions are the name given to a class of drones that carry a warhead. The system can loiter over the battlefield, looking for a target, and then carry out an attack. At the point when the system decides to attack, usually based on a human operator making a determination, it will fly toward its target the way a cruise missile would. Thus, it combines missile and drone technology.
The India-Pakistan clashes may not be over. However, the world’s countries are watching. China will want to see how its warplanes and missiles stack up. Russia will want to see how India’s S-400s perform. India uses French Rafale warplanes. Israel will be looking closely as well.
The full story emerging between India and Pakistan is not a simple military lesson of whether one system works better than another.
India’s military and defense sector today is dominated by a “make in India” approach that seeks to have most of the defense procurement be done locally. This makes sense for a country of a billion people with ample resources.
However, it was not historically what India did. Despite its size, India’s defense investment has increased over the years. The country is trying to modernize, and each clash leads to questions about whether these efforts are performing well. Pakistan is merely one foe for India. China is also a rival. India is also important in terms of ties with the Gulf and China.
What happens in the India-Pakistan clashes has wider implications as well for Asia and the Pacific, as well as wars in Gaza and Ukraine. This is an increasingly Hobbesian world of an emerging new world order.
The multi-polar world in which we live today is one of increasing wars in various regions. Countries are willing to take more chances than in the past. They are less cautious and have less restraint. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is an example, as is the October 7 attack.
With shifts in global power accelerating, conflicts such as the one between India and Pakistan are more important.
Countries such as China may draw conclusions about its own tensions with Taiwan or with other states.
If China’s military technology performs well, it could cause Beijing to gamble. A gamble could lead to another, larger conflict.
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