Champions League semifinal predictions: Arsenal or PSG? Barcelona or Inter Milan?

The UEFA Champions League quarterfinals brought plenty of intrigue as Arsenal beat Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain held off a valiant comeback from Aston Villa, Inter Milan knocked out Bayern Munich, and Barcelona progressed despite a second-leg loss to Borussia Dortmund.

So, as the dust settles on this week’s mayhem, let’s take a way-too-early look at how we think the semifinals — to be played on April 29-30 and May 6-7 — will play out as Mark Ogden, James Olley, Rob Dawson, Alex Kirkland, Julien Laurens and Sam Marsden make their predictions.

Arsenal vs. Paris Saint-Germain

First leg: April 29 | Second leg: May 7

OGDEN: It’s such a tough game to call. PSG are the best attacking team in the competition and their midfield of Vitinha, João Neves and Fabián Ruiz will dominate against any opponent — Thomas Partey’s first-leg suspension (due to a yellow card vs. Madrid) will also hurt Arsenal in that area — but Aston Villa exposed PSG’s defensive weaknesses and could easily have advanced instead. Arsenal showed against Real Madrid how defensively organised they are and beating the holders 5-1 on aggregate was a real statement. But PSG are so good going forward, and they have improved so much since losing 2-0 at the Emirates in October, that they will just shade it over the two legs. PSG advance, 3-2 on aggregate

OLLEY: Arsenal’s self-belief will be at new levels given they have knocked out the holders and already beaten PSG during the group phase. That said, PSG are a different proposition now and midfielder Partey’s suspension causes Mikel Arteta a major headache given Mikel Merino would be the logical replacement but he is currently needed as a makeshift centre-forward. It is tempting to agree with Mark, therefore, that the strength PSG have in midfield could be decisive, as good as Declan Rice was in both legs against Madrid. PSG look more able to expose Arsenal’s injuries and, though I think it’ll be close, they can progress to the final. PSG advance, 2-1 on aggregate

DAWSON: Arsenal will fancy their chances of beating anyone after dumping Madrid out, but PSG have clicked into gear since the turn of the year and they’ll be very hard to stop. Vitinha and Neves are good enough to win the midfield battle against Rice, and then there’s the pace of Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia up front when the ball turns over. It could be quite a high-scoring tie — similar to PSG and Aston Villa — and there are more goals in the PSG team. Arsenal are still operating without a striker and the injured Gabriel is a big miss at the back. PSG advance, 4-3 on aggregate

LAURENS: This is such an exciting tie and so hard to call. The fact that the second leg is in Paris will be an advantage to PSG, but Arsenal are probably the more complete team of the two. PSG have the energy, intensity, youth, and the most firepower up front with Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola, as well as a midfield that can dominate any other in Europe. PSG will have learned a lot from their defeat at Villa Park and the lack of control they showed, so they will be a better team for it. Arsenal will also be a better team after schooling Real Madrid like they did, but no Gabriel and no Partey for the first leg is bad. PSG advance, 5-3 on aggregate

MARSDEN: PSG have so much pace and variety in attack, but more importantly, unlike Real Madrid, they are backed up by a balanced midfield and an impressive work ethic across the team. As Mark says, though, they are not bulletproof at the back, whereas Arsenal showed against Madrid how well they can defend at this level. With Bukayo Saka fit again, the Gunners can edge this tie if they get a good result in the first leg. Arsenal advance, 2-1 on aggregate.

KIRKLAND: I was so impressed by Arsenal at the Bernabéu. They dealt with Real Madrid — in one of the most high-pressure situations imaginable — with such poise and clarity of ideas for a relatively young team, who are inexperienced at this level. Yes, PSG are a much better team than Madrid in almost every department, but I think Arsenal’s defence can cope with Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia and others, while Saka and Gabriel Martinelli can cause problems for full-backs Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes, who are at their best going forward. I agree that midfield will be key, though. Arsenal will need more man-of-the-match performances from Rice to prevail. Arsenal advance, 3-1 on aggregate.

Barcelona vs. Inter Milan

First leg: April 30 | Second leg: May 6

MARSDEN: In optimum circumstances, I think Barcelona win this tie. But they have the first leg at home three days after the Copa del Rey final against Real Madrid and then the second leg is away at San Siro. If they recover from Tuesday’s loss to Dortmund, keep players fresh going into the games and have left-back Alejandro Balde fit again — a few ifs there — I back them to make a first final since 2015. Inter have been resolute at the back but Bayern Munich showed they can be breached. To make a more general observation, I can’t remember the last time the four semifinalists felt so evenly matched. Barcelona advance on penalties, 3-3 on aggregate

OGDEN: Barcelona have outscored everybody in the Champions League this season with 37 goals, but Inter have the meanest defense — five goals conceded, and eight clean sheets, in 12 games — so this is the ultimate clash of attacking brilliance against formidable defending. Barcelona have conceded 17 goals in 12 games and that’s a weakness Inter can exploit through Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram. Barca have Lamine Yamal and Raphinha to test Inter’s rock-solid organisation, but the Serie A champions have enough experience and nous to repeat their epic 2010 semifinal win and reach the final. Inter Milan advance, 2-1 on aggregate

OLLEY: I’ve said for months that I think Barcelona can win it this year and I can’t desert them now. Mark has said it all with the numbers so it comes down to whether Barcelona’s star-studded attack can make the difference. I think they will. I can understand Sam’s point about the Copa del Rey — that isn’t ideal — but maybe the first leg being at home may help Barca. Better that than travelling after such an intense game and if they can get a fast start, it could turn the second leg into a contest where Inter have to take more risks than they may usually be comfortable with. Then, Yamal and Raphinha can have their fun on the break. Barcelona advance, 3-1 on aggregate

DAWSON: Resilience and organisation count for a lot at this stage of the Champions League, and Inter have plenty of both. Barcelona will begin as favorites because of the attacking brilliance of Robert Lewandowski, Raphinha and Yamal, but Inter’s defensive discipline will make it hard to find gaps. If Inter can come away from Spain with any kind of lead from the first leg, they’ll back themselves to keep Barcelona’s forwards relatively quiet in the second and book their place in the final with a draw. It’s going to be tight. Inter Milan advance, 3-2 on aggregate

LAURENS: Can you have more opposing styles and tactics than these two? It’s Europe’s most attacking front-footed team against its best defensive unit and organised side. What a clash of cultures but, as a football lover, I want to believe that the attacking team will prevail over the defensive one. We saw Barcelona suffer in Dortmund in the quarterfinal second leg; we saw Inter rattled by Bayern too. Both are fragile, but the key to this game is all about attack vs. defence. Barcelona advance, 3-2 on aggregate

KIRKLAND: Quite right Juls, you couldn’t pick two more contrasting teams, and that should make this tie a lot of fun. Barcelona have been so good to watch this season, scoring goals almost at will, but Inter will be the ultimate test. Tuesday’s 3-1 defeat at Dortmund was a useful wake-up call too. Sam’s right, the timing after the Copa del Rey final isn’t great, but imagine Barça thrash Madrid — again — in that game, and then go into the Inter tie full of confidence. Of course Yamal and Raphinha will be important, but the player who makes this Barça team tick is Pedri, and if he’s on form — as he has been all season — Barça can dominate midfield and create enough chances for the front three to finish off. Barcelona advance, 3-2 on aggregate.