China’s simulated defense against a US stealth missile assault reveals a high-stakes battle for technological supremacy pitting stealth versus counter-stealth capabilities in the contested South China Sea.
This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Chinese scientists have simulated a surprise US attack on a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) carrier group in the South China Sea, revealing key details about the US military’s latest stealth anti-ship missile, the AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM).
According to SCMP, the simulation, led by researcher Wang Tianxiao from the North China Institute of Computing Technology, aimed to enhance the PLA’s countermeasures and tactics. It mentions that the simulated battle occurred near the Pratas Islands, with the US launching a large-scale attack using ten LRASMs.
These missiles, known for their radar stealth capabilities and nearly 1,000-kilometer range, targeted a Chinese destroyer in the simulation. Despite electronic warfare interference deployed by the PLA, the missiles switched to thermal imaging cameras and successfully hit the target.
SCMP says the simulation’s unprecedented realism and detailed parameters could significantly impact future military strategies. However, the SCMP report points out that the data used in the simulation remains unclear, with the Chinese team claiming it came from open-source intelligence and long-term accumulation.
It adds that the US military classified the LRASM’s technical parameters and operational methods, making the Chinese team’s claims difficult to verify independently.
The Chinese simulation’s choice of using stealthy cruise missiles over hypersonic weapons may reflect the advantages the former has over the latter and the fact that the US has not yet fielded any hypersonic weapons. Thus, using stealthy cruise missiles against Chinese targets is more likely in a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait in the short to medium term.
Asia Times mentioned in September 2024 that stealth cruise missiles like the LRASM offer several advantages over hypersonic missiles.
Firstly, their low radar cross-section and minimal infrared signature make them difficult for enemy defenses to detect and intercept. Secondly, they reduce dependency on external intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms, ensuring effectiveness in intense electromagnetic warfare environments.
Thirdly, their capability to coordinate attacks through data-sharing among multiple missiles provides swarm capabilities, allowing for coordinated, high-precision strikes.
In contrast, hypersonic missiles, despite their extreme speeds, create unique phenomena such as plasma wakes and chemical reactions, which could make them easier to detect. Additionally, the distinctive plumes and wavelengths of light they leave behind can be tracked by advanced sensors.
Despite the simulation’s results, China may have multiple options to defeat the stealthy US LRASM, such as directed-energy weapons, counter-stealth technology and “shooting the archer” – destroying the launch aircraft or ships before they come into range.
Unlike conventional gun and missile systems, laser weapons give instantaneous hits with a virtually unlimited ammunition magazine at negligible cost. These attributes make them ideal for countering drone and cruise missile attacks.
Asia Times mentioned in August 2024 that China has made significant strides in laser weapon technology, as evidenced by the upgrade of its Type 071 amphibious ship, Shiming Shan, with an advanced laser weapon system.
The laser system, whose specifics remain undisclosed, is expected to bolster defenses against unmanned aircraft and small boat swarms, potentially including dazzler capabilities to blind sensors and seekers.
However, laser weapons are still in their early development stage and they face significant drawbacks such as substantial space and power requirements, diminished effectiveness at longer ranges and sensitivity to atmospheric conditions.
China could also use advanced detection technologies alongside next-generation aircraft to defeat stealthy cruise missiles such as the LRASM, enabling the interception of both the missile and its launching aircraft.
Asia Times mentioned in November 2024 that simulations by the PLA National Defense University and the State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Game in Beijing revealed that China’s new counter-stealth radars could detect F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters from up to 180 kilometers.
The simulations, which modeled a US attack on Shanghai from Japan, highlighted vulnerabilities in the stealth shields of the F-22 and F-35, mainly when the F-35 operates in “beast mode,” making it detectable from 450 kilometers away. These findings come amid increased US deployment of F-22s in Japan, intensifying China’s focus on countering stealth threats.
China’s investment in radar technology includes a cost-effective system that uses signals from the BeiDou navigation satellite system to detect stealth aircraft. This radar employs a unique algorithm to identify targets without emitting detectable signals, enhancing China’s anti-stealth capabilities.
Furthermore, Asia Times reported this month that China’s reveal of its new stealth aircraft, the J-36 and J-50, marks a significant leap in its military aviation capabilities.
The J-36, developed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, features a tailless, delta-wing design to reduce radar signature and enhance stealth. Equipped with three engines, it emphasizes high-speed flight and long-range operations, making it suitable for air superiority and strike missions. The J-36’s design includes large weapon bays capable of carrying substantial payloads, indicating its role in air-to-air and air-to-surface combat.
On the other hand, the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation’s J-50 is a twin-engine stealth fighter designed for versatility in contested environments. Its advanced stealth technologies and avionics make it a formidable opponent in air superiority and strike roles.
Furthermore, Asia Times mentioned in December 2024 that China could use hypersonic weapons from air, sea and land to attack US targets. The YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship missile, fired from its Type 055 cruisers, is a formidable weapon against US surface combatants such as Ticonderoga-class cruisers and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
While China’s simulation of an LRASM attack resulted in the loss of a destroyer, the scenario may be simulating a one-off incident that does not account for a possible war of attrition at sea.
China is the world’s largest shipbuilder, producing three-quarters of global shipbuilding orders in 2024. Thanks to military-civil fusion, China’s shipbuilding capacity also translates to naval power. China’s shipbuilding capacity has surged past that of the US, with the former’s shipbuilding capacity 232 times greater than the latter.
Furthermore, the US Department of Defense’s 2024 China Military Power Report states that the PLA Navy (PLA-N) is numerically the world’s largest navy, with 370 ships and 140 major surface combatants.
Such formidable shipbuilding capacity means that China could quickly build new warships and repair damaged ones, ensuring numerical superiority that trumps short-lived technological advantages and which historically has been the decisive factor in naval warfare.
