On Saturday, December 14 the front page of the Financial Times featured a photograph titled “Syrians mark fall of Assad”.
The image reminded me of memories of similar events in the past, but I had little time to reflect. I was running late for a meeting with Frank Maury and Susan Seamount at the Belvedere Café in central London.
Embarking onto the cold, and windy streets of London, a light drizzle greeted me. Dressed in an overcoat, scarf and cap, I paced myself for the city’s increasingly frustrating traffic.
What should have been a quick 15-minute drive turned into half an hour due to road closures and congestion – a daily problem in London.
I arrived at the door of the café, which was warm and welcoming. I was greeted by the bright smile of a hostess who took my overcoat, scarf and cap. She then ushered me to my friends’ table.
Frank – a former American ambassador and currently an author, writer and board member of a consulting firm – welcomed me warmly, as did Susan who wore attractive gold jewelry, blonde hair tied in a Roman bun and a sharp black Ralph Lauren suit. She was a global traveling professor of practice, with a background in business and geopolitics.
After some pleasantries and ordering a cappuccino with a warm croissant, Frank turned the conversation to the British economy, which he described as spiraling downward, under the current Labor government. He was critical of Chancellor Rachel Reeves, warning that her policies could cripple the economy.
From farmers protesting to tax hikes to renewed inheritance policies, to the death of the non-dom status and foreign trusts, Frank painted a bleak picture of investor and business frustration, with many already bailing from the UK.
As my coffee and croissant arrived, Frank shifted the discussions to today’s front page Financial Times photo. “Doesn’t that Syrian image remind you of Tahrir Square in Cairo or Bourguiba Avenue in Tunis?” he asked.
Susan and I both nodded, and this opened the door to a broader conversation.
For the next hour, we discussed how the so-called Arab Spring, once celebrated as a step towards democracy by the West, ultimately gave rise to chaos, extremism, and terrorism disguised in religious rhetoric. Frank admitted that the West, along with Israel, had supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, while both the US and France backed similar groups in Tunisia.
Susan expanded on how these groups thrived with Western support and funding. The consequences, Susan noted, have been devastating. The events of 2011 left the Middle East economically weakened and socially fragmented, with scars still visible today. Frank highlighted how the demonstrations in Damascus’ Ummayyad Square mirrored the failures of Tahrir Square.
“The only difference,” he noted dryly, “is the flag.”
Susan, smiling knowingly, called it tragic that the West continues to back radicals. She pointed out that the West not only supported the Muslim Brotherhood and its affiliates, including Hamas, but even removed Mohammed Al- Jolani from a global terrorist list just a day after he assumed control in Syria.
“Was there some sort of deal?” Frank asked. “Who financed the American military equipment that entered Hama under both US and Syrian flags?”
A heavy silence followed.
The discussion turned into eerie parallels: so-called locals destroying and defacing statues in Damascus in a similar fashion as was done in Baghdad. In Baghdad, they decapitated Saddam, in Syria they brought down Bashar, removing large billboard images that filled the streets of Damascus.
Frank described the similarities, and how a government in Syria was fabricated by the terror alliance known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who appointed Mohammed Al-Bashir as Prime Minister. Al-Bashir, a known terrorist, was in charge of a sliver of territory in northwest Syria. For hours we debated the complexities of the Middle East, discussing the roles of America, Russia and Israel.
Two key conclusions emerged.
First, the world has undergone a major geopolitical shift, with technology and a relentless news cycle eroding human empathy and morality. Tragedies – bombed hospitals, devastated cities and the killing of innocents – are now met with indifference unless they directly affect the powerful.
“We only care when the bomb falls near us,” Susan observed. “And if it does, that’s when the scent of the atomic war will be smelled.” Second, we agreed that 2025 is a pivotal year, with a 50/50 chance of descending into global instability.
Frank remained optimistic that humanity would wake up before it sleepwalked over the edge. Susan and I, however, were less hopeful, pointing in a frame of realism to a leaderless world with one very powerful country that has made repeated foreign policy misjudgments.
Finally, we looked at our watches.
To our surprise, three hours had already passed, and the rain had finally stopped, we all wished each other best wishes and agreed to meet in New York. Walking out into the now-dry streets, I reflected on my Bloomberg interview with Margaret Brennan at the time that Cairo erupted under the Muslim Brotherhood in 2011.
Back then, I had warned of the dangers of the consequences of supporting the Brotherhood and how the loss of stability, security and a proper path to change, could lead to a very chaotic, catastrophic and caustic path, one I hoped would be completely avoided in 2025 worldwide even though my concerns remain high.
About the author
M. Shafik Gabr is a renowned leader in international business, innovation, investment and one of the world’s premier collectors of Orientalist art, and an accomplished philanthropist.
During his career, Gabr established over 25 companies plus three investment holding companies including ARTOC Group for Investment and Development which, established in 1971, is a multi-disciplined investment holding company with businesses in infrastructure, automotive, engineering, construction and real estate, over the past three years focusing on investment in technology and artificial intelligence.
Gabr is the Chairman and a founding member of Egypt’s International Economic Forum, a member of the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum, a Board Member of Stanhope Capital, an International Chairman of the Sadat Congressional Gold Medal Committee, and a Member of the Parliamentary Intelligence Security Forum.
Gabr is a Member of the Metropolitan Museum’s International Council and serves on the Advisory Board of the Center for Financial Stability, the Advisory Board of The Middle East Institute, and the Global Advisory Council of the Mayo Clinic.
Through the Shafik Gabr Social Development Foundation, Gabr is helping to improve elementary-school education in Egypt, introducing students to arts and culture and promoting sports and physical fitness for youth. The Foundation has its first Medical and Social Development Center in Mokattam, Cairo, offering free medical and health services.
In 2012 Gabr established in the US the Shafik Gabr Foundation which supports educational and medical initiatives plus launched in November 2012 the ‘East-West: The Art of Dialogue initiative promoting exchanges between the US and Egypt with the purpose of cultural dialogue and bridge-building.
Gabr holds a BA in Economics and Management from the American University in Cairo and an MA in Economics from the University of London.
