Federal parties gearing up for early election despite trade war

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OTTAWA — While Canadians may be looking at job losses and a recession in the next few weeks due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to launch a trade war with a close ally and partner, they could also be called to the polls in that same period.

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Several political operatives and MPs told the National Post they are not-so-quietly gearing up for an early election after the Liberals elect a new leader this Sunday.

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“The most likely scenario, based on the assumption that Mark Carney is going to win, is that we will be in an election very shortly,” said Anne McGrath, who serves as principal secretary to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, on Monday, before the tariffs took effect.

The NDP, she said, has already been staffing up for an election in the near term and already has a plane and a couple of buses ready to go on the road when needed.

“Basically, we’re putting all the pieces in place to be ready to have a campaign any day now,” said McGrath.

On Tuesday, Singh wrote to all party leaders to call for an emergency session of Parliament to immediately put in place a package of measures to protect Canadian workers from the “devastating consequences” of U.S. tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs.

Parliament is currently prorogued until March 24. Going into a new session would require a Speech from the Throne, and a confidence vote. Liberals are skeptical of going down this path, given that Singh vowed to bring down the government in December.

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Liberal MP Kevin Lamoureux said that if Singh were to “put pen to paper” and vow to support the federal government until the end of June, for instance, that would give Liberals enough leeway to deal with tariffs and they could call an election this fall, as planned.

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The fixed election date is set for Oct. 20, 2025.

“Otherwise, I think that we could be in the midst of three or four days into session, and then Jagmeet decides we’re going into election. Without any sense of predictability… I think that we need to look at calling the election sooner, as opposed to later,” he said.

McGrath, an architect of the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals back in 2022, said there are no discussions underway to rekindle that support.

“I think I would probably know about it,” she said.

Carney signalled last month he is willing to call an early general election, should he become Liberal leader and the country’s next prime minister on March 9. But he added it would be best to evaluate the situation come mid-March, depending on U.S. tariffs.

“If Parliament needs to be recalled for certain reasons, it will be,” he said on Feb. 13. “If it makes sense to get a strong mandate at that point, that is what will follow.”

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Liberal MPs said they have been gearing up for an election — whether it happens in a few days, weeks or months.

Salma Zahid, the Liberal MP for Scarborough Centre, said she has already secured a campaign office and has a team knocking on doors and making phone calls.

Zahid said her team was waiting for the Ontario provincial election, which happened last Thursday, to be over before reaching out to her constituents on the federal level.

“We didn’t want to confuse the voters,” she said.

Lamoureux, who is MP for Winnipeg North, said he has already taken his election signs out of storage and printed his first election brochure.

Lamoureux has also bought a new pair of shoes — with memory foam, he specified — which he says he always does before he is set to knock on thousands of doors.

“(I’m) just making sure that everyone is aware that I’m starting to get nervous, and I want people to start getting motivated,” he said.

The Conservatives, who have been calling for an early election for months now, declined to go into specifics about their election preparedness.

“The Conservative Party will be ready for whenever the election is called with a full bank account and a full slate of candidates,” said Sarah Fischer, a spokeswoman for the party.

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“We are currently running ads on TV, radio and digital from coast to coast and we will continue to do that during the campaign.”

The Liberal Party also declined to comment on campaign planning but boasted about being in one of the strongest positions for fundraising and organizing in the party’s history.

“We’re ready to fight and win the next election whenever it may come,” said Parker Lund, spokesman for the party.

Conservatives currently have more than 250 candidates nominated, whereas the Liberals and the NDP have about 160 candidates nominated. All parties are expecting many more to be nominated in the coming days and weeks.

In the near-term, however, Liberals will be choosing the next leader who will steer them into the next election.

Lamoureux said he will be in Ottawa for Sunday’s convention and is prepared to put on his new shoes as soon as he gets back to his Winnipeg riding.

Zahid said she is also ready for an election: “Let’s bring it on.”

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