OCALA, Fla. — Tuesday’s special elections for two Florida congressional seats in heavily pro-Trump districts have become an unexpected source of concern for national Republicans as Democrats have poured millions in fundraising into the races.
Both seats opened when President Donald Trump chose their representatives for jobs in his second administration. Matt Gaetz was briefly nominated to be Trump’s attorney general before withdrawing, while Mike Waltz became national security adviser.
Florida state Sen. Randy Fine, running for Waltz’s seat, and state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, running to replace Gaetz, are widely expected to hold the seats in their reliably conservative districts, which would give Republicans a 220 to 213 advantage over Democrats in the U.S. House. But both have been outraised by their Democratic counterparts, and Republicans in Florida and Washington have begun trying to distance themselves from any potential underperformance.
Fine has attached himself closely to Trump. He texted The Associated Press on Monday a post on the social platform X from Trump, who encouraged voters to turn out for Fine on Election Day and said Fine was an “incredible fighter.”
Special elections are often low-turnout events that can lead to surprising results. But anything other than blowout victories in either district would be noteworthy.
In the November election, Gaetz won the 1st Congressional District in Florida’s heavily conservative Panhandle by 32 percentage points. Waltz won the 6th Congressional District — which includes deeply red regions in northeastern Florida — by about 33 percentage points.
Both Patronis and Fine have been outspent and outraised by their Democratic opponents, Gay Valimont in District 1 and Josh Weil in District 6.
Valimont has raised about $6.5 million according to fundraising reports, versus Patronis’ $2.1 million. Weil has raised $9 million for his race, compared to about $1 million raised by Fine, according to his campaign contributions report.
Democrats credit the money raised in these races to grassroots support fueled by anger at the first two months of the second Trump administration.
This momentum is placing unexpected pressure on Fine, a self-described conservative firebrand who lives outside of the district. Fine said last week that he put $600,000 of his own money into the race.
Fine is known for his support of Israel and his efforts to restrict LGBTQ+ rights. Over the past few years, he has sparred with Gov. Ron DeSantis, recently during the Legislature’s special session on immigration, and again in August when he criticized the governor’s trip to Ireland, calling it an “antisemitic country” after the island nation recognized a Palestinian state.
DeSantis, who formerly represented the 6th Congressional District before becoming governor, said last week that he expects Fine to deliver an “underperformance” compared to the votes he and Trump got in that district. He called it a “reflection of the specific candidate running in that race” rather than a reflection on Trump.
“I think the district is so overwhelmingly Republican that it’s almost impossible for someone with an R by their name to lose that district, so I would anticipate (a) Republican candidate is still going to be successful,” DeSantis said.
Weil is an educator and single father with two boys who describes himself as a “proud progressive.” He unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat that was occupied by Republican Marco Rubio. Weil withdrew his candidacy before the primary in a crowded field that ended up nominating former Rep. Val Demings, who lost to Rubio.
He appeared at a Monday rally of about 100 volunteers, veterans, retired residents and even Republicans who decided to work in his campaign. He thanked the group for their support
“Your voices are essential for me being able to serve you in Congress,” Weil said.
The crowd cheered and waved signs reading “A Teacher Representing You.”
North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, who heads the National Republican Congressional Committee, also acknowledged Fine should have stepped up his fundraising earlier but said he still expects him to win.
“I’m not concerned about margins,” Hudson said. “I mean, special elections are special.”
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Associated Press writer Curt Anderson in Tampa contributed to this report.
