Tensions between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan have escalated sharply after a militant attack at Pahalgam in Anantnag district of Indian-administrated Kashmir, which resulted in the death of at least 26 tourists.
The attack has triggered angry calls for retaliation in India. Without providing any evidence, India has blamed Pakistan for the attack and taken a host of measures to ratchet up tensions. These measures include termination of visa services for Pakistanis, downgrading of ties, and above all, a unilateral decision to suspend the historic Indus Waters Treaty.
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is a transboundary water agreement signed in 1960 that allows both India and Pakistan to share water from the Indus basin. The agreement has survived many conflicts, diplomatic breakdowns, and near-constant tensions between the two countries for over 60 years.
Pakistan has responded to the Indian decisions by closing its airspace for Indian aircraft and downgrading ties. It has threatened to suspend all bilateral agreements between the two countries, including the Simla Accord of 1972, which validates the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh region.
India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty is a serious gamble. The decision has the potential to foment chaos and unrest in Pakistan — the Indus is Pakistan’s lifeline — and bring the two nuclear-armed nations close to the possibility of a full-scale war in the near future. Pakistan cannot afford to have its water shut down by India, in any form or manner.
This was made clear at yesterday’s meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Committee to discuss formal responses to India’s measures.
“Water is a Vital National Interest of Pakistan, a lifeline for its 240 million people, and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs,” the statement read. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an Act of War and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of National Power.”
India’s decision to suspend the IWT marks a dangerous precedent for how the two countries manage their water resources together.
India’s announcement, however, doesn’t mean that New Delhi will be able to immediately shut down water supply to Pakistan at a scale that could make some significant dent in flows during the high monsoon season — when Pakistan stores most of its water.
The Indus Waters Treaty gives Pakistan access to the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. These are enormous rivers and carry tens of billions of cubic meters of water between May and September, the months when ice melts and rivers on the Indus basin flow.
Currently, India has some upstream infrastructure on these rivers. However, none of the existing infrastructure base has the capacity to hold back water that enters Pakistan as part of the treaty. “These are run-of-the-river hydropower projects with very limited live storage. Even if India were to coordinate releases across all its existing dams, all it may be able to do is slightly shift the timing of flows,” according to Hassan Khan, an environmental policy expert at Tufts University.
It will take years, massive infrastructure development, and billions of dollars in investments for India to actually disrupt Pakistan’s water share. Moreover, there are risks of flooding in Indian-administrated Kashmir along with other geographical challenges to any efforts aimed at building water diversion infrastructure in the Kashmir region.
However, after India’s announcement, the real threat lies in the uncertainty ahead and the dangers that debates over suspending water flows may cause in the coming months and years.
The Indus Waters Treaty is a binding agreement between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank. The agreement does not contain any provision for unilateral suspension. Any official comment, announcement or move by India regarding the IWT, even if made for rhetorical reasons, will carry the risk of a conflict with Pakistan.
Moreover, New Delhi’s unilateral suspension of the treaty sets a dangerous precedent in the region that could backfire on India. For instance, China could mirror India’s controversial move by blocking the Brahmaputra River. The Brahmaputra supplies around 30 percent of India’s fresh water resources and about 44 percent of the country’s total hydropower potential. China is building major dams on the Brahmaputra and could find justification for further constructions in India’s controversial move on the IWT.
Besides, India’s decision could force Pakistan into fast-tracking efforts to build dams in its part of Kashmir with Chinese cooperation. Pakistan and China are already collaborating on massive dam projects, including Diamer-Bhasha, Dasu, and Mohmand, and India’s recent threats will likely bring greater focus and urgency to these developments.
India should not forget that China is a major stakeholder in these projects and has invested billions of dollars in Pakistan’s hydroelectric power sector.
In the long run, if India tries to divert, block, or significantly reduce Pakistan’s share of Indus waters, Pakistan’s military doctrine permits a kinetic response. India should consider the fact that a decision to make Pakistan water-scarce can only lead to a war as a last resort for survival for the country.
The United States and the World Bank are likely to intervene behind the scenes to prevent the complete breakdown of the IWT to avoid the prospect of a wider conflict. At best, India may try to use this new dynamic to renegotiate the treaty with Pakistan. India has tried this for years and may follow on this path with a renewed resolve.
Instead of escalation, renegotiation under international mediation and forums is the only viable path, unless both countries are prepared for a wider war, which will not have any winners.
