Trump says he wants Keystone XL pipeline built ‘NOW.’ How likely is that?

The politically charged Keystone XL pipeline is back in the spotlight, with U.S. President Donald Trump pitching the company behind the project to return to the U.S. and “get it built – NOW!”

“I know they were treated very badly by Sleepy Joe Biden, but the Trump Administration is very different — easy approvals, almost immediate start!” wrote Trump on his platform Truth Social on Monday night.

The roughly 1,900-kilometre pipeline was designed to take oil from northern Alberta to the U.S. Midwest. 

The Keystone XL project has a long, tumultuous history, dating back to when it was first proposed in 2008. It was blocked under the Obama administration, then revived by Trump during his first term in the Oval Office, only to be killed again by president Joe Biden on his first day on the job.

Last month, Trump rescinded a Biden-era executive order revoking a permit for the project, Bloomberg News reported, in theory opening the door for the project to be resuscitated.

South Bow, the company that TC Energy spun off to handle its pipeline business, has said it’s no longer interested. 

“We’ve moved on from the Keystone XL project,” said spokesperson Katie Stavinoha in a statement. 

‘What does he want?’

Trump’s enthusiasm for the project has left some scratching their heads about his ultimate game plan for Canadian energy, given that he’s still threatening a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian crude oil, set to take effect in early March.

“The big question is: what does the administration really want?” said James Coleman, an energy law professor at the University of Minnesota. 

Rafi Tahmazian, a retired energy manager with Canoe Financial, suggested that Trump might be reacting to the recently floated idea that Canada revisit plans for an Energy East pipeline. 

“He’s worried that if we build a pipeline east, we start to look at sending our oil to other places and diminishing our dependency on the U.S.,” said Tahmazian. “And that is a very big problem for his refiners and the products that they produce for the U.S.”

Tahmazian says Keystone XL has become a bit of a metaphor. For Trump, he said, it’s not so much about the specific project as it is about the overall concept of building a pipeline to get more crude oil into the U.S.

“He’s just poking and saying, ‘I want to give you guys a chance to recognize there’s an opportunity to market that oil to us as well,'” said Tahmazian. “And he used the Keystone term as the vehicle to get everybody aware of it.”

In a statement, Carolyn Svonkin, a spokesperson for Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, said Canada is open to a “productive conversation” on the subject, but noted that a private sector partner would be needed to move the project along.

“A private sector proponent would need to step forward to advance the project, and there is not currently one expressing they would do so,” said Svonkin.

Trump didn’t name a specific company in his post, and suggested that if the original company behind the project didn’t pursue it, then perhaps “another pipeline company” would.

‘Challenging idea’

Even with Trump’s support, the project could face hurdles.

Dennis McConaghy, a former TC Energy executive who was involved with the pipeline’s original plans, noted that during the previous Trump administration, opponents of the project used the courts to fight it, which could be a problem again this time around.

“It’s a very challenging idea,” he said. 

Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, said she doesn’t believe such a project could or should materialize. 

“Canada should accelerate the transformation of our economy away from these very volatile fuels and rather double down on the clean energy sector,” she said. 

In a statement, Lisa Baiton, president and CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, didn’t directly mention the Keystone XL pipeline. But she said Canada needs to do two things: preserve its integrated energy trade with the U.S. and do a “domestic policy reset” that will attract greater investment in “nation-building infrastructure projects.”

The aim, she said in the statement, is to “diversify our markets for Canadian products and tariff-proof our country.”

On X, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith struck an enthusiastic tone about Trump’s pitch, saying she agreed the project shouldn’t have been scrapped in the first place.

“Let’s also scrap these inflationary tariff ideas and focus on getting shovels in the ground right away!” she wrote. 

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe also chimed in on X, saying the path to “continental energy dominance” is increasing non-tariff trade in North America.

“This includes the construction of new pipelines like Keystone XL.”