As ocean temperatures remain stubbornly high, forecasters see a diminished chance that the Pacific Ocean will enter its cooler La Niña phase this fall, as was predicted.
After a particularly warm El Niño ended in early summer, the Pacific entered its neutral phase. U.S. forecasters had previously said there was a 70 percent chance that La Niña would then take shape in early fall. They have since downgraded their forecast to a 60 percent chance of a brief La Niña forming in mid- to late fall.
The Australian weather service, meanwhile, predicts that ocean waters will remain warm enough to extend the neutral phase through at least February 2025. Forecasters say that if a La Niña does materialize, it will be relatively weak and short-lived.
Globally, the temperature of ocean surface continues to be at near-record highs. According to Australian weather officials, persistent ocean heat means that El Niño and La Niña “may not necessarily behave or evolve as they have in the past.”
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