What’s behind Liverpool’s sudden slump as Premier League run-in looms?

Deep in the bowels of Wembley Stadium in the aftermath of Liverpool’s Carabao Cup final defeat, Harvey Elliott winced as he hobbled toward the exit.

The midfielder had been on the receiving end of a robust challenge from Newcastle United’s Joelinton in the dying stages of his team’s dismal 2-1 defeat, and his battle-weary state personified an eight-day spell that had left Liverpool both physically and mentally spent.

It was a week that had initially promised so much. Head coach Arne Slot had described the visit of Southampton to Anfield on March 8 as “the first of three cup finals” for his side. After a poor first-half performance against the Premier League’s lowest-ranked team, Liverpool battled to a 3-1 victory that edged the club ever closer to a 20th league title.

Only three days later, however, and the mood on Merseyside was decidedly less celebratory as Liverpool crashed out of the Champions League on penalties following Paris Saint-Germain’s narrow victory at Anfield. Slot’s side had weathered the mightiest of storms to come away with a 1-0 win in the first leg of their round-of-16 tie at the Parc des Princes, but in the reverse fixture, they were given a taste of their own medicine as PSG soaked up the pressure following a fortuitous early goal from Ousmane Dembélé.

It was a tie that had teetered on a knife-edge, but when Désiré Doué hammered home the winning spot kick following penalty misses from Reds’ stars Darwin Núñez and Curtis Jones, it was hard to argue PSG didn’t deserve to progress. Liverpool’s misery was then compounded five days later when they helped deliver Newcastle’s first domestic trophy in 70 years with an abject performance at Wembley.

After last weekend’s match, Slot dismissed the suggestion that the opposition’s appetite for silverware had been the deciding factor. But if it was not Newcastle’s hunger that gave them the edge, then what was behind Liverpool’s jaded performance against Eddie Howe’s side? Could it simply be that Slot’s team — who have been a well-oiled machine for much of the campaign — are now running out of gas?

Liverpool’s 12-point cushion at the top of the Premier League table with nine games remaining means only an almighty collapse would see them surrender the title from here. However, in recent weeks, there have been alarming parallels with the second half of the 2023-24 season, when Liverpool’s campaign imploded spectacularly. Slot’s side must ensure they do not let history repeat itself when they return to action next month.

Liverpool in need of a refresh

Against Newcastle, Liverpool were second-best all over the pitch. Though they dominated possession, Slot’s side were bullied by the opposition, winning just 42% of their duels. Contrast this with Liverpool’s slick display in the 2-0 Premier League win over Newcastle in February — when the Reds won 55.2% of their duels — and it is clear there was a distinct lack of tenacity and grit on show at Wembley.

This drop-off is even more pronounced when you home in on aerial duels, which Slot pinpointed as one of the key aspects of last weekend’s contest.

“This game went exactly the way [Newcastle] wanted it to be: a fight with a lot of duels and a lot of duels through the air,” the Dutchman said after the game. “And if we play 10 times a game of football through the air against them, they win it probably nine times because they are a stronger team through the air than us.”

In the last league meeting between the two sides, though, it was Newcastle who came up short in the air, winning just 35.7% of their aerial duels compared to Liverpool’s 64.3%. It was clearly an area Howe’s side sought to improve in the Carabao Cup final, when they won 68% of their aerial duels compared to Liverpool’s 32%.

In the midfield, too, there was a stark contrast in the teams’ dynamism. Liverpool’s starting midfield trio of Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai and Ryan Gravenberch all deserve consideration for the Premier League team of the season, but were outfought in the middle of the park at Wembley. Gravenberch won 42.9% of his duels, Szoboszlai 37.5% and Mac Allister just 16.7%. By comparison, Joelinton and Bruno Guimarães — who anchored Newcastle’s midfield superbly — won 75% and 64.3% of their duels respectively.

Perhaps it was simply a bad day at the office for the Liverpool engine room, but it is worth noting the significant increase in their respective workloads this term.

As of March 17 in 2023-24, Mac Allister, Gravenberch and Szoboszlai had played a combined total of 6,309 minutes for their club. This season, that number has increased to a combined 9,480 minutes, with Gravenberch’s contributions having almost doubled from 1,839 minutes to 3,516 minutes. Sooner or later, those extra miles on the clock are bound to have an impact.

“I think it’s pretty straightforward: they’re just running out of legs,” said former Liverpool defender and ESPN analyst Steve Nicol. “From my point of view, last year was different because they had so many injuries.

“They had everyone back for the end of the season, but there’s a difference between getting players back and having them be match fit. Mohamed Salah was probably the best example of that last year when he came back from a hamstring injury. These past couple of weeks, they just look like they’ve run out of legs. Newcastle have played nine games less than Liverpool this season and, if you look at that as nine free midweeks, it shows how relentless Liverpool’s schedule has been. That catches up with you.”

One of Slot’s greatest successes at Anfield has been his ability to keep injuries to a minimum. Across his three seasons at previous club Feyenoord Rotterdam, Slot was able to keep player availability levels above 90%, with highly-rated head of performance Ruben Peeters following the Dutchman to Merseyside.

Under Slot and Peeters, a huge emphasis is placed on the “body wake-up” process, which involves early-morning yoga and hydrotherapy sessions. Players are now required to spend more time at the training centre, arriving early to eat breakfast together and spending more time in the gym following tailored individual programs. But while those tweaks have paid dividends, only Nottingham Forest (23) have used fewer players than Liverpool in the Premier League (24) this season. Slot’s team now looks in desperate need of a refresh.

Midfielders Elliott and Wataru Endō — both of whom have largely excelled when called upon this term — have not started a league match under Slot. Forward Federico Chiesa — who, excluding on-loan goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, was Liverpool’s only signing last summer — has played just 25 minutes in the top flight.

A lack of faith in those fringe players has arguably cost Slot dear in recent weeks as his tried-and-trusted mainstays have faded off the back of a rigorous few months. However, it’s not the first time Liverpool have encountered a slump in the decisive part of the season.

History repeating itself

In mid-March last term, Liverpool were flying high on all fronts. Under Jürgen Klopp, the Reds were level on points with Premier League leaders Arsenal and, having already lifted the Carabao Cup, were being touted by some as potential Quadruple winners after reaching the quarterfinals of both the FA Cup and Europa League. However, in the space of little more than a month, Liverpool crashed out of both cup competitions and fell away badly in the title race, ultimately finishing nine points adrift of eventual champions Manchester City.

Injuries had played their part. According to the Premier Injuries website, Liverpool had 21 different players sidelined over the course of that campaign. Only Tottenham Hotspur (22) suffered more. While Liverpool’s injury crisis did ease in the final months of the campaign, several of the returning players — including Szoboszlai, Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold — failed to recover their best form.

“There are different aspects, definitely,” Klopp said, reflecting on his team’s decline after a 2-0 defeat to Everton last April. “Players who played all the games are not that fresh, but that is for other teams the same.

“I don’t want to use that as an excuse, really — as long as the boys are fit, not injured, that helps … Coming back from injury obviously is then slightly different, because of the intensity — the game is not waiting for you.”

Liverpool’s drop-off last season is evidenced by their average points per game (PPG). In the first 28 games of last term, the Reds recorded an average of 2.29 PPG, which dropped to 1.8 PPG in the last 10 games of the campaign. So far this season, Liverpool are tracking at 2.41 PPG, while second-place Arsenal are averaging 2.0 PPG and third-place Nottingham Forest 1.86 PPG.

Liverpool’s impressive body of work up until this point — coupled with their rivals’ inconsistencies — means any slip-ups in the coming weeks may not prove detrimental. But if Slot’s side allow the hangover from their disappointing March to carry into the remainder of the season, what has long appeared a procession to the title runs the risk of becoming a weary trek toward the finish line.

Liverpool still on cusp of history

After the Carabao Cup final, Slot admitted he would have liked his players to be given the chance to provide a quick response to their disappointing week. Instead, Liverpool have been afforded a 17-day break between their Wembley heartbreak and the Merseyside derby with Everton on April 2.

The international break and upcoming round of FA Cup fixtures — Liverpool were knocked out of the competition by Plymouth Argyle in the fourth round — means the Reds’ recent frustrations have been given ample opportunity to fester. But if change is as good as a rest, then the fact the majority of Slot’s squad have been called up to represent their national teams might actually prove conducive to breaking them out of their funk, allowing for a mental reset ahead of the final block of league games.

“At this stage of the season, it’s all about the mentality,” said Nicol, who won four league titles across his 13 years at Anfield. “If that means you don’t play quite as open, attractive football as you normally would, that’s okay.

“This is the time of the year when it’s not about how good you are, it’s about getting it done and winning the games. It’s up to the manager and his staff now to change the atmosphere a little bit. Everyone will obviously be a bit down, but maybe the international break came at a good time, giving players the chance to get away for a bit and get the cobwebs away.”

Contrasts in players’ schedules means downtime in the coming weeks will differ, though a source has told ESPN there will be some time off built into everyone’s schedule to allow for some physical recuperation.

Arsenal can reach a maximum of 85 points this term, meaning Liverpool need just 16 points from a possible 27 to guarantee the title. Considering Mikel Arteta’s side have not won more than three league games in a row this this season — and that they still must travel to Anfield on May 10 — it is likely Liverpool’s margin for error will be even greater, though Slot will of course be keen to avoid his players slipping into that mindset.

“Like I said from the start, it took us seven, eight [or] nine months to lose twice in a row and that happens against two teams; one of them is fighting for Champions League, Newcastle is a very good team [and] we knew this already at St. James’ Park, and the other one is Paris Saint-Germain,” Slot said last week.

“I want to make clear one more time that the week started off really well by us beating Southampton. That’s why we extended our lead to 12 points [in the Premier League] with nine games to go.”

While recent performances have invited criticism, Slot is right to try to accentuate the positives. Liverpool remain on the cusp of achieving an extraordinary feat; yielding what would be only a second league title in more than three decades for the Merseyside club, a reality that seemed inconceivable on the eve of this season as Liverpool prepared to embark on a new era without the galvanising presence of serial winner Klopp.

This is still very much a team moulded in the German’s image and this summer promises to be a big one at Anfield, with the futures of key players Salah, Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk, plus reserve goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher and others, still up in the air and the club poised to be busy in the transfer market after consecutive quiet windows. Before then, though, Liverpool have a job to do. The past few weeks have proven Slot’s side are not infallible and have shown their head coach — contrary to how it has seemed for much of the season — is not beyond reproach either.

But Liverpool have defied expectation this term to establish themselves leaders of arguably the most competitive league in the world. Now they must banish the ghosts of last season and show exactly why they deserve to be there.