NDP says it has ‘momentum’ as it stares down electoral collapse

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TOP STORY

The first official action of the NDP after Sunday’s election call was to issue a statement saying that they are experiencing “record-breaking momentum.”

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“We are ready for this election,” NDP Campaign Director Jennifer Howard said in the statement.

In truth, the NDP is entering this campaign with shaky finances and some of the worst poll numbers they’ve ever charted. If the party can’t turn it around in the next five weeks, they could well be staring down the worst electoral showing since their 1961 founding.

NDP poll numbers have been in steep collapse ever since Jan. 7, when then prime minister Justin Trudeau announced his plans to resign, setting the stage for his replacement by Mark Carney.

Before Trudeau’s resignation, the NDP had spent years hovering between 15 and 20 per cent of the popular vote. This is roughly in line with how they performed in the 2021 federal election, when the NDP captured 17.8 per cent of total ballots cast.

But particularly in recent weeks, multiple pollsters have charted the NDP in single digits. A March 17 Angus Reid Institute poll had them at nine per cent, while a March 24 Pallas Data poll had them dropping as low as eight per cent.

If these kinds of figures hold out until election day, the NDP could end up facing the near-total annihilation of their caucus, which stood at 24 MPs as of Sunday’s election call.

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A recent projection by election modeller Raymond Liu forecast the NDP having a caucus of just two seats come April 28. Liu’s projection was based on Pallas Data numbers showing the NDP with 11.9 per cent support.

The NDP has contested 20 federal elections since the party was founded as a reboot of the 1930s-era  Co-operative Commonwealth Federation. And a caucus of two seats would easily rank as the federal NDP’s worst-ever showing. To date, the NDP’s historical worst still belongs to 1993, when it won just nine seats under leader Audrey McLaughlin.

The plummeting support has tracked closely with a proportionate rise in Liberal support, indicating that even longtime NDP voters appear to be stampeding to the Liberals under new leader Mark Carney.

The election call also comes just as the NDP has finished digging itself out of a multi-million-dollar financial hole caused by the last general election.

The party was forced to take out a $20 million loan to cover their expenses during the last general election, and only last year did party brass announce that the debt was paid.

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In the NDP’s most recent audited financial statements — for the fiscal year 2023 — they had just $289,808 in cash on hand, barely enough to cover the travel expenses of leader Jagmeet Singh in a national campaign.

The NDP was able to fundraise $6.3 million in 2024, although this lagged dramatically behind the $15.2 million brought in by the Liberals, and an unprecedented $41.8 million brought in by the Conservatives.

But in Sunday’s statement, the NDP still said it intended to spend the maximum amount allowed by Elections Canada. In the 2021 election, this was about $30 million. “This is the first time in a decade the NDP will spend the maximum allowed under Elections Canada’s limits,” read the NDP release.

Otherwise, Sunday’s “record-breaking momentum” statement was mostly referring to the NDP’s slate of candidates, which the party said is more developed than in 2021.

“We’ve got more candidates nominated than the Liberals do and more than we had when the writ dropped in 2021,” said Howard.

As of press time, the party’s official website was featuring 130 candidates out of 343 federal ridings, as compared to 197 candidates featured by the official site for the Liberals — although those figures may not represent the total slate of confirmed candidates.

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POLICY CORNER

The first main pledges of the 2025 campaign are all tax-related.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre promised tax cuts for the lowest income bracket, falling to 12.75 per cent from 15 per cent. This followed Liberal Leader Mark Carney promising the exact same tax cut, but smaller (he promised to cut it by one per cent).

Both promises are notable in that it’s been awhile since a Canadian politician has promised a broad tax cut; they usually prefer this to be more complicated in the form of boutique tax credits or means-tested benefits.

WHOOPS

This is the first time in Canadian history where both main candidates for prime minister are running in Ottawa-area ridings. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has represented a riding in the Ottawa hinterlands since 2004. And Liberal Leader Mark Carney announced he will be running in the neighbouring riding of Nepean. Carney told reporters he knew the riding well from his years in Ottawa working for the Bank of Canada and the Department of Finance, saying he was acquainted with it from “Barrhaven to Bells Corners and in between.” There’s just one problem: The neighbourhood of Bells Corners is not in the riding.

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