Aregawi was building a tour-guiding business when war struck Ethiopia’s Tigray region in 2020. He spent the next two years fighting on the frontline. Now he is among those who fear Tigray is on the brink of conflict once more.
“We don’t want to become a battleground, but it seems like war is near, maybe even inevitable,” he said.
The war between Tigray’s rebellious rulers and Ethiopia’s federal government ended in 2022, leaving about 600,000 people dead and nearly 10% of women aged between 15 and 49 living in Tigray raped, according to a British Medical Journal study.
But the failure to implement most of the ceasefire’s provisions – including the return of nearly 1 million displaced people – and a scramble over resources has split the ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party.
Tensions escalated this month when Tigray’s interim president, Getachew Reda, tried to fire three senior military commanders, having previously accused his forces of attempting a coup.
A coup now appears to have taken place. Last week, a rival TPLF faction, led by the party chair Debretsion Gebremichael, installed its officials in provincial government offices. It also took over the mayor’s office and the main radio station in the regional capital, Mekelle. Getachew fled to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital.
On Saturday a skirmish in Tigray resulted in three deaths. A few days before, another person was killed during a dispute in the town of Adi Gudem.
All week long queues formed outside Tigray’s banks as people withdrew their cash, and flights leaving the country sold out. Armed men roamed Mekelle’s streets at night, checking people’s ID.
“Fear and uncertainty prevail,” said a resident, who asked not to be named. “My friends are planning to leave for Addis Ababa, Kenya and Uganda because of the fear of war.”
Against this backdrop, concerns are also increasing over tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Despite fighting alongside each other in Tigray, the neighbouring countries have been at loggerheads for months over the determination of Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, to regain access to the Red Sea, which Ethiopia lost when Eritrea seceded in 1993.
Having previously made overtures to the breakaway republic of Somaliland, Abiy set his sights on Eritrea’s port of Assab. He has repeatedly said sea access was “existential” for Ethiopia, which with 130 million people is the world’s most populous landlocked country. He described losing Eritrea’s coastline as a “historical mistake”.
Eritrea has ordered a nationwide mobilisation and is trying to undermine Abiy by aiding rebels fighting Ethiopia’s military in the Amhara region bordering Tigray. There are reports that Eritrean intelligence helped Debretsion’s TPLF faction during last week’s coup.
Ethiopia has sent tanks and troops to the Eritrean border, and state media have been amplifying voices justifying Ethiopia’s claims over Assab port.
Last week, Gen Tsadkan Gebretensae, Tigray’s vice-president, warned that war could erupt “at any moment” and the region risked “becoming a battlefield” again.
Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos, the former US and EU special envoys to the region, described developments as “dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite an interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea”.
Abiy said he wanted Ethiopia to regain the port peacefully. “Ethiopia has no intention to invade Eritrea to gain Red Sea access,” he said on Thursday. “Our desire is to talk about it under the principle of give and take, in a mutually beneficial manner, and according to commercial law.”
He spoke after meeting the rival Tigray factions. It appears Abiy declined to intervene in support of Getachew, which could have sparked fresh fighting.
Abiy could seek a deal to secure the support of Tigray, which still has a formidable 200,000-strong military force.
Tigray’s new leaders, meanwhile, want to regain control of western Tigray, a fertile area with gold deposits that was seized by Amhara forces during the war. Any attempt to recapture it could also spark fresh conflict, said Ahmed Soliman, at the geopolitical thinktank Chatham House.
“The crux is how things evolve in Tigray and how Abiy responds,” Soliman said. “If there is no agreement, the situation could certainly escalate.”
