PSG vs. Inter Milan: Ultimate UEFA Champions League final preview, predictions

On Saturday, the 2024-25 European club season comes to an end with the traditional closer, the UEFA Champions League final. Held in Munich this year, the head-to-head is a tantalizing one that few expected: the “born again” Paris Saint-Germain, led by manager Luis Enrique and a young, hungry squad, taking on wily veterans Inter Milan, who have a unique formation, plenty of savvy stars and an underrated tactician in Simone Inzaghi.

Both teams have taken down giants to reach the showpiece finale — PSG eliminated Liverpool and Arsenal in the knockout rounds, while Inter Milan fended off fancied Barcelona and Bayern Munich to punch their ticket — and now face a winner-take-all showdown.

So who will win, and what storylines are bubbling under the surface? ESPN writers Mark Ogden, Gab Marcotti, Julien Laurens, Tom Hamilton and Bill Connelly walk you through what to watch for and give their picks for who will claim the prize Saturday night.

A final of youth vs. experience

The contrast is evident. Inter’s likely starting XI have an average age of 30 years and 4 months; Paris Saint-Germain’s is 24 and 7 months. Inter have eight players who featured the last time they were in the Champions League final, two years ago; Marquinhos is the only PSG starter to have played in a Champions League final at any time in his career.

That’s the most obvious difference between Saturday’s finalists, and what impact it will have will depend heavily on how the game is played.

A higher tempo evidently favors the fresh legs of PSG, whereas a slower, nervy grind ought to give Inter the edge, at least on paper. But both sides are far more multifaceted than they appear. Both can play a possession game, poking and prodding until the right opening appears — witness Ousmane Dembélé’s opener against Arsenal, a result of 26 passes — but both can be direct and hit you going north-south. PSG have the speed of Dembele, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola; Inter have the chemistry of Marcus Thuram and Lautaro Martínez, a rare front tandem in the modern game.

It’s not as simple, therefore, to liken it to a basketball game and suggest Inter want fewer possessions and PSG want more, because both coaches can and do mix things up. Rather, perhaps precisely because these teams are managed by two of the best around, we might see some myths get buried Monday night. Inter might show that the parameters of fitness and athleticism have changed and that top pros can go strong into their early 30s. PSG might show that experience is overrated relative to game intelligence and tactical instruction.

So don’t just boil this down to experience vs. athleticism. There’s much more to it. — Marcotti

Battle of the superstar, MVP goalkeepers

The Champions League is usually all about the superstar forwards and their ability to win games out of nothing, from Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo to Mohamed Salah and Vinícius Júnior, but this time around, it could be decided by the goalkeepers.

Inter’s Yann Sommer and PSG’s Gianluigi Donnarumma were the players who got their teams over the line in the semifinals, and they have produced similar performances on the international stage with Switzerland and Italy, respectively.

Sommer, who spent a year in Munich with Bayern in 2023 after 11 seasons with Borussia Monchengladbach, replaced André Onana at Inter following the Cameroon international’s move to Manchester United two years ago, and the 36-year-old has been a clear upgrade on Onana, with his performance against Barcelona in Inter’s dramatic semifinal second-leg win producing at least five world-class saves. Donnarumma had a similar performance for PSG in their semifinal second leg against Arsenal, when he pulled off incredible saves from Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka to keep Luis Enrique’s team ahead.

Sommer and Donnarumma have had to bounce back from difficult periods in their careers to establish themselves as two of the world’s best, and they will both be looking to win their first Champions League title in Munich.

If it goes all the way to penalties, it could be too tough to call between the two goalkeepers. Sommer was the hero of Switzerland’s Euro 2020 round-of-16 shootout win against France when he saved a Kylian Mbappé spot kick, while Donnarumma has won a remarkable six of seven shootouts for club and country, including the Euro 2020 final against England at Wembley, to give him an 87.5% success rate. — Ogden

Will Luis Enrique win another treble?

Back in 2015, Luis Enrique won the treble (Champions League, LaLiga, Copa del Rey) with Barcelona and had an unstoppable front three of Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez and Neymar. Ten years on, he has the chance to achieve another one but with another club, and he could equal something that only Pep Guardiola, his former club teammate at the Camp Nou, has done in the history of the game: winning two trebles with two different clubs.

Luis Enrique has had to wait 10 years to get another shot. That’s a very long time for a manager so obsessed with the game, though for him, it’s not just about winning; it’s about how you win, and this final will be very different than the previous one too. Then, Luis Enrique pretty much inherited Guardiola’s entire Barcelona squad except for Luis Suarez and Ivan Rakitic, who arrived the same summer as him, and the winning pedigree and mentality that came with it.

For this PSG squad, it’s the opposite. This is his team. This is the Luis Enrique project, and this is only Year 1. The Asturian has built it all, getting rid of Neymar, Marco Verratti (just to name the two biggest names) and others because they didn’t fit with what he was constructing. He recruited the players he wanted (defender Willian Pacho, midfielder João Neves, playmakers Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Désiré Doué) to complete his jigsaw and deliver on his ambitious style of play: high press, high intensity, fluidity within the structure, pace and attacking flair.

His team have been the best in Europe in 2025; it just has to finish the job on Saturday. — Laurens

How these teams reached the final

Simply watching these two teams as they advanced through the Champions League knockout rounds — PSG with ball pressure, steady buildup and an overwhelming tilt of the field, Inter with structure and substitutions and perfectly timed swipes of the sword — would give you a pretty clear impression that they thrive as polar opposites. The stats very much back up that impression.

PSG are here because of pitch domination. After some early-season wobbles, they became maybe the best team in the world starting in December. Since Matchday 6, they’ve averaged the most points per game (2.45) with the most goals (30) and the best goal differential (plus-21). That includes a 7-0 win over Brest, yes, but also four wins in five games against the three teams in England (Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City).

PSG have flooded teams with pure quantity: For the entire competition, they’re fifth out of 36 Champions League teams in shots per possession and third in shots allowed per possession. They’ve attempted 45 shots worth at least 0.2 xG and allowed 20, a plus-25 margin that ranks first. They just do more than their opponents: They’re first in ball recoveries (48.6) and take-ons per match (27.7), second in direct attacks (sequences starting in the defending half and producing a shot within 20 seconds) and third in buildup attacks (sequences that contain 10 or more passes and produce either a shot or a touch in the box).

In short, they play like the young and endlessly aggressive team they are.

Inter, meanwhile, fill the role of the collective sturdy veteran. They win with quality over quantity: They attempt only 13.6 take-ons per match (35th), but they win 49.7% of them (third). They force 8.8 high turnovers per game (27th) but score 0.6 goals per game from them (ninth). They’re 15th in shots per possession but eighth in xG per shot, and they’re 22nd in shots allowed per possession but first in xG allowed per shot. Opponents have attempted more shots than them, but looking specifically at shots worth 0.2 xG or more, they attempt 2.3 (12th) and allow only 1.3 (third).

Inter force you to expend energy attempting to beat them with individual brilliance, and if you do so, they are almost always ready with a counterstrike. Just ask Bayern and Barcelona. PSG will almost certainly control large portions of the pitch and this match, but Inter are more likely to score from set pieces, more likely to win the ball in the air and almost certain to create random, high-quality opportunities that give them a chance at Champions League glory. — Bill Connelly

The omen of first-time winners in Munich

Munich has staged four previous European Cup/Champions League finals — three at the Olympiastadion, one at the Allianz Arena — and the German city has proved to be lucky for those teams aiming to be crowned European champions for the first time. That might be great news for PSG.

Nottingham Forest won the first of their two European Cups with a 1-0 victory against Swedish champions Malmo in 1979, while Marseille became the first (and so far only) French club to win Europe’s biggest prize by defeating AC Milan 1-0 in the Olympiastadion in 1993. Four years later, Borussia Dortmund made the short trip to Munich to take on reigning Champions League kings Juventus in their first-ever final, but despite the odds favoring Marcello Lippi’s formidable team, Dortmund cruised to a 3-1 win.

Bayern Munich faced Chelsea on home ground in the 2012 final, but despite facing the English side in their own stadium, Bayern could not break the sequence of first-time winners in Bavaria as Chelsea sealed the first of their two Champions League titles with a penalty shootout victory at the Allianz.

So will three-time European champions Inter be able to deny PSG a first Champions League title in Munich this weekend, or will Luis Enrique’s team keep the sequence going?

One more bit of good news for PSG: Marseille clinched a French victory in Munich in 1993 by defeating a team from Milan in their second attempt at winning the competition. PSG face another team from Milan in Munich, one that’s also aiming to win the Champions League on the second attempt. — Ogden

Two incredible full backs, but only one can win

Back in the summer of 2021, Achraf Hakimi and Denzel Dumfries passed like ships. Hakimi had enjoyed an incredibly successful 2020-21 season at Inter Milan and helped Antonio Conte’s side to the Scudetto. At the end of that term, he departed for PSG.

Hakimi’s replacement? Dumfries, signed for €15 million, a fraction of the eventual €71 million Inter Milan collected for Hakimi.

But now they’re back on the same pitch, and it’s no exaggeration to say the pair have been outstanding in this year’s tournament.

Dumfries was integral to Inter’s remarkable win over Barcelona in the semifinals, scoring twice in the first leg (including on that scissor kick), and then managing to tee up Lautaro Martinez for their opener in the return fixture in Milan. Hakimi has kept a close eye on Dumfries, saying last week: “He’s a great player. One thing I like about him is that he’s very strong in the air, while I’m terrible.” Then came the little dig, however, with Hakimi saying it’s “easier” to play wing back in a 3-5-2 than to handle a back four role.

Hakimi has been consistently regarded as the best right back in world football, and he has enjoyed another superb season for PSG, even scoring the winner against Arsenal in their semifinal.

The two had very different paths to the top: Dumfries played amateur football to age 18 before progressing to PSV and then Inter Milan, while Hakimi came through the Real Madrid academy. But if you look at the stats comparison between the two this season, they are close on many metrics, such as ground duels won and tackles per 90 minutes. Then comes the nuance: Hakimi has made 3.67 interceptions per 90, compared with Dumfries’ 1.27, and Dumfries has been far more dominant in the air (winning 71% of aerial duels to Hakimi’s 47%).

They are very different types of players, but one thing binds them: their desire to get into attack and influence the match. Which one will have the defining moment Saturday? — Hamilton

It’s prediction time! Who will win, and by what scoreline?

Inter Milan 2, PSG 1: As soon as Inter and PSG confirmed their spots in the final, I predicted a 2-1 win for Inter, and I am sticking with that. I believe PSG are the better team and more exciting to watch, but Inter are a tough, uncompromising side with a cutting edge up front, so I am backing their resolve over PSG’s flair to seal the win. — Ogden

Inter Milan 2, PSG 0: They knocked out the champions of Germany and Spain, so why not make it a trifecta with the champions of France, too? The bookies fancy PSG, and you can see why. But if the game comes down to set pieces (where Inter have an edge) and intangibles (experience, sure, but also the ability to get back up after being punched in the face), Inter can shade this. — Marcotti

Inter Milan 1-0 PSG: Ultimately, their experience will prevail, and they will score on a set piece to clinch their second Champions League crown, leaving PSG waiting a little longer. — Laurens

Inter Milan 3, PSG 2: This is going to be tight, but Inter will edge it. They have the most underrated manager (Simone Inzaghi) in world football, and their ability to arm-wrestle the tightest matches into victory will come through again. — Hamilton

PSG 1, Inter Milan 0: We’ll just play the odds here. Inter will inevitably create a couple of good chances, but PSG will create more of them. — Connelly