The UN has authorised a new African peacekeeping mission to continue its fight against the al-Qaida-affiliated group al-Shabaab in Somalia, but there are doubts about whether troops from neighbouring Ethiopia will remain part of the deployment.
The UN security council adopted a resolution on Friday allowing the deployment of up to 12,626 personnel to support the Somali government’s nearly two decades-long fight against the al-Shabaab insurgents.
The existing peacekeeping force, known as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis), whose mandate ends at the end of this year, will be replaced by the leaner African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (Aussom).
The two peacekeeping forces were preceded by the African Union Mission In Somalia (Amisom) which was the largest, longest running and deadliest such mission in history.
Al-Shabaab, a jihadist organisation with roots in Ethiopia’s 2006 invasion of Somalia, carries out regular deadly attacks across the country and in neighbouring Kenya. In August, almost 40 people were killed and more than 200 were wounded when it attacked a beach in the Somali capital, Mogadishu.
James Kariuki, the UK’s deputy permanent representative to the UN, welcomed the resolution, telling the council that it “robustly reinforces” support for Somalia in its fight against al-Shabaab. “It authorises Aussom to support Somalia in its fight against al-Shabaab, strengthen Somalia’s stabilisation efforts, and enable the delivery of humanitarian assistance,” he said.
The French representative at the council also hailed the adoption of the resolution as an “important step forward” and a “new stage in the support for Somalia’s efforts to combat the al-Shabaab group”.
It wasn’t clear if Ethiopia, which has been a major contributor to the two past iterations of the peacekeeping forces and is also a target of al-Shabaab, would be allowed to continue to play a role. Somalia and Ethiopia have been embroiled in a year-long dispute over a sea access deal that landlocked Ethiopia reached with the separatist northern Somaliland region – which Somaliland officials say would lead to Ethiopia becoming the first country to recognise the region’s statehood.
The agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia has been strongly opposed by Somali officials, who have called it an attempt to “annex” a portion of their territory. The deal would reportedly grant Ethiopia a portion of Somaliland’s coast for potential naval use.
Somalia first hinted in the summer that it might remove Ethiopia from a long-running African Union peacekeeping mission against al-Shabaab in parts of southern and central Somalia, and replace its contingent with troops from other countries, including Egypt, with which Ethiopia has its own disputes over a dam it has constructed along the Nile.
The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, brokered an agreement between the feuding neighbours last month labelled the Ankara declaration, which was meant to address Ethiopia’s sea access concerns. At that time, Somalia’s president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, said Ethiopia would be permitted to keep its troops in the peacekeeping mission.
Mohamed Rabi Yusuf, the Somalia representative to the UN, said the Somali government had carried out a “comprehensive review of its security arrangements” and had obtained commitments from other countries willing to commit troops to Somalia. “This commitment addresses any security vacuum created by Ethiopia while sustaining progress in the fight against al-Shabaab,” Yusuf said.
The Ethiopian delegate, who was present at the UN security council meeting, said his country was “ready to continue its role in the post Atmis mission”, adding that “extra-regional actors”, a likely reference to Egypt, should abandon their “reckless pursuit”.
In a late post on X, Somalia’s national security advisor, Hussein Sheikh-Ali, suggested a decision had not yet been reached on whether Ethiopian troops would be permitted to remain, but added: “The spirit of the Ankara declaration remains strong and alive.”
The Somali government is using this as a “bargaining chip or negotiating tool,” says Abdinor Dahir, an expert on Somalia, ahead of a follow-up to the Ankara declaration. “The Ankara declaration isn’t an agreement which normalised ties, it was more of a commitment to continue discussions,” says Dahir, adding: “until Ethiopia cancels the agreement with Somaliland, Somalia is unlikely to want to include their troops.”
Earlier this week, the Somali government claimed that Ethiopian troops attacked members of its armed forces in the southern Jubbaland state, causing casualties and injuries. Ethiopia denied the allegation, attributing it to unnamed “third-party” actors, according to a statement.
Ayub Ismail Yusuf, a Somali MP and member of the Somali parliament’s foreign affairs committee, called on the Somali government to exclude Ethiopia from the peacekeeping force. “No nation can trust another where their sovereignty was threatened by them,” he posted on X.
