Most of Washington finally realizes – even if grudgingly – that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is a threat. Indeed, President Trump’s challenge resembles that of Ronald Reagan taking over in 1981 from a feckless administration that allowed America’s main enemy to gain the advantage.
It looks like another Cold War – of the sort the US and the Soviet Union waged from 1945 to 1991.
Should we call it “Cold War 2”?
Sometimes language matters, and sometimes it doesn’t matter. In this case, it doesn’t.
For starters, a large chunk of the American population wasn’t even born when the Cold War ended in 1989. The expression won’t resonate.
Even more, the Chinese don’t distinguish between “cold” war or any other type of war. To the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), war is war. The absence of shooting (going “kinetic”) doesn’t mean it’s not a life-or-death fight. Anything goes.
The Soviets wouldn’t have dared to kill well over half a million Americans with fentanyl during the Cold War – as the PRC has done over the last decade.
The Chinese barely shrug when faced with the evidence of their “drug war” against America.
Different from the Cold War
The current struggle with the PRC is different from what the US faced with the USSR during the Cold War.
China, unlike Russia, could potentially dominate and defeat the United States. Maybe not tomorrow, but wait a decade or two.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is also a bigger military threat than was the Soviet military – especially considering the nature of the regime behind it and the PRC’s economic clout.
The Soviet Union was not an economic power in any sense and the US did little business with it.
China, on the other hand, is a global superpower thanks to US investment and technology doled out over four decades and the ill-advised admission of the PRC into the World Trade Organization.
And, worse, the United States is dangerously if not suicidally dependent on Chinese manufacturing, strategic minerals, components, pharmaceuticals and much more.
Even US military supply chains are deeply tied to the PRC. That would have been unthinkable with the Russians and there was an entire COCOM export control regime to keep US and Western technology away from the Soviets.
And Chinese elite capture in the US is far worse than anything the Russians ever achieved. How successful? Consider the aforementioned Chinese-origin fentanyl.
What punishment has Congress or any administration imposed on Beijing for this mass murder? None. Such is the power of America’s “donor” class over Capitol Hill.
And then there are Russia’s and China’s national objectives. From about the 1970’s onwards the Russians never really thought they could defeat the US. China believes it can.
Indeed, Xi Jinping sees America as the main obstacle to Chinese global domination – and an obstacle that must be removed.
Another distinction between then and now is Russia and its allies. The Eastern Bloc was able to cause trouble – particularly by subversion and by supporting terrorist and insurgent groups. But it never really threatened America or its place in the world, as long as the US kept its nerve.
China, on the other hand, has relationships with Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba and several other countries that taken together can pose serious problems for the US and its partners.
Their strategic interests now align – while the United States allowed its defenses to lapse, along with its economic might, after it “won” the first Cold War in 1991.
America’s partners are in even worse shape.
As for the “axis of chaos”: Without help from China, Iran, and North Korea, Russia would not have managed to prosecute its assault on Ukraine as long or as effectively as it has.
And there is well-founded fear of the PRC seizing Taiwan, while North Korea and Russia make supporting moves, and pushing the United States out of East Asia.
America’s response
Trump understands the risks we face from the PRC, even if he often uses restrained language.
His top national security officials, Mike Waltz, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth and others, recognize the PRC threat. They believe in “peace through strength.”
Whether other officials – particularly so-called “restrainers” and promoters of “cooperation spirals” with China who are inexplicably showing up in the administration – will gum up the works is unclear and worrisome.
What we face now is worse than the Cold War. One almost waxes nostalgic.
Rather than fretting over what to call today’s struggle, it’s more important to clearly understand and articulate the threat posed by the PRC – and the need to forcefully defend the United States and its interests.
Nobody has done that, or at least nobody has done it well enough to convince most Americans.
And don’t just talk about the problem. Strengthen the US military (to include eradicating DEI) and find senior officers who can fight and win wars.
Rebuild America’s industrial and manufacturing base, and get America’s finances in order – instead of spending like drunken sailors and debasing the US currency and global trust in it.
Pressure China where it is vulnerable. Xi tells us: Trade, technology, human rights, regime legitimacy, a currency that few people want and high-level corruption – Xi’s included.
And stop funding and providing the technology and convertible currency that have built up the Chinese military and economy.
Wean ourselves off the China market – and fast.
“Decoupling” is essential. Let the world develop into a “free world” trading bloc alongside another bloc for the ‘unfree’ countries.
China is the main enemy. Defang it, and then Russia, Iran and North Korea are relatively easier to handle. In the meantime, apply comprehensive pressure on all of them and don’t let up.
There is no deal to be cut with the Chinese Communist Party.
What matters is to win the fight we are in.
Lose it and it won’t matter what we called it.
