By Francesco Guarascio
HANOI (Reuters) – The U.S. trade deficit with Vietnam exceeded $110 billion in the first 11 months of 2024, latest U.S. figures show, as exports from the Southeast Asian industrial hub grew amid a record fall of its currency against the dollar.
The latest reading, released on Tuesday by the U.S. statistics agency, showed a nearly 18% rise in the deficit compared with the same period the previous year. The data confirms the Communist-run country has the fourth highest commercial surplus with the United States, topped only by China, the European Union and Mexico.
The large gap is seen by analysts as a major risk for the export-reliant nation amid threats from President-elect Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 20% on all U.S. imports.
That risk has been compounded by a sharp fall of Vietnam’s dong in recent months, with the dong trading near its lowest ever levels against the dollar. The trend is closely watched in Washington as Vietnam is one of the countries under scrutiny for potential currency manipulation.
Vietnam, which counts the U.S. as its biggest market, is home to big export-focussed industrial operations of U.S. multinationals such as Apple (NASDAQ:), Google (NASDAQ:), Nike (NYSE:) and Intel (NASDAQ:).
Latest seasonally adjusted trade figures show that in the January-November period Vietnam accumulated a commercial surplus with the U.S. of $111.6 billion, up from $94.8 billion in the same period in 2023. Unadjusted data pointed to a larger gap of $113.1 billion.
In November, the trade gap expanded by another $11.3 billion, accelerating from October, as Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. rose, the adjusted data show, possibly supported by the weak dong.
“If the U.S. perceives that Vietnam is deliberately keeping the dong weak to gain an unfair trade advantage, it could trigger renewed accusations of currency manipulation,” said Leif Schneider, head of international law firm Luther in Vietnam.
Trump ended his first term in the White House with Treasury declarations of Vietnam and Switzerland as currency manipulators over their market interventions to weaken the value of their currencies.
Vietnam’s central bank has said it was ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market in case of adverse economic impacts from currency moves, and has sold dollars in the past to strengthen the dong.
On Tuesday, before new trade figures were released, the bank said it would monitor Trump’s policies and adjust accordingly.
The dong’s most recent depreciation against the dollar is broadly in line with other major currencies.
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