“New era in Serbia–US relations!” ran the headline in a Serbian tabloid following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election last November. It was a sentiment echoed by other Serbian newspapers, too.
Soon after, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said that during his phone call with the president-elect, he emphasized that support for Trump’s reelection had been greater in Serbia than anywhere else in Europe.
“I am confident that we will make — he will make — America great again, and that we will make Serbia a proper country, one that will be able to cooperate very well with the United States,” Vucic said at the time.
Just ten days before Donald Trump’s inauguration, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma will arrive in Serbia this weekend with the goal of initiating a strategic dialogue between Serbia and the US and raising bilateral relations to a higher level.
Serbia: ‘a reliable partner and ally’
“When the US establishes a strategic dialogue with a country, it means that it sees that country as a reliable partner and ally,” says Vuk Velebit of the Pupin Initiative, a Belgrade-based NGO working to strengthen Serbia–US relations.
“Serbia has had strategic agreements with China, Russia and, of course, a special relationship with the EU,” Velebit told DW. “The fourth pillar of [Serbia’s] foreign policy is the US, and by signing this strategic dialogue, Serbia will achieve this with Washington, which means that relations with China and Russia, along with their influence, will be balanced by a special relationship with America,” he added.
Closer cooperation despite sanctions?
This strategic cooperation would, according to reports in Serbian media, primarily focus on areas such as the economy, energy and security.
However, it comes at a time when the US has imposed sanctions on Serbia’s oil company NIS, of which the state-owned Russian company Gazprom Neft is the majority shareholder. These sanctions are part of a wider set of US measures targeting Russia’s energy sector.
“They demand from us a complete exit of Russians from NIS: remove, not reduce,” Vucic said on January 10, adding that the deadline for the Balkan country to reach an agreement with the Russians could be extended to March 12 at the latest.
For Vuk Velebit, this is a chance for Serbia to push for a change in NIS ownership. “I think that Serbia wants to correct the harmful sale of NIS, which was sold below any market price, making us completely dependent on Russia in the energy sector,” he told DW. “It’s not good to be dependent on any single partner, and for Serbia, it is crucial not only to regain control over the sector but also to diversify its energy portfolio. US and American companies could be a reliable partner in this.”
High hopes in the new administration
The euphoria surrounding Trump’s return to the White House is most striking in Serbia’s pro-government tabloids, which are predicting a grand dismantling of globalism.
President Vucic himself shares this view and is confident that Donald Trump — whom he has called the “leader of the era” — will deliver.
“Donald Trump is preparing 200 acts, which he will sign and issue on the first or second day of his presidency. When he does, the entire system of the false liberal world will collapse,” said Vucic.
Impact on Serbia–Kosovo relations?
However, beyond the prospect of a “fight against globalists,” which delights Serbian officials, the return of the Republicans raises hopes in Belgrade that the US might become more favorable to Serbia in the Kosovo dialogue process too.
Vuk Vuksanovic, a researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, believes that those hopes are to a certain degree realistic.
“Serbia’s government certainly does not believe that the Trump administration will change its stance on Kosovo, but they do believe that on issues such as the economic position of Serbs in northern Kosovo and the protection of monuments and religious sites in Kosovo, they might get a better deal with the Trump administration,” explains Vuksanovic.
“But the key issue now,” he continued, “is whether this political capital will be spent on something else — such as on securing the Trump administration’s support for the regime at a time when it is facing its most serious problem: the student protests.”
Are the hopes justified?
But are Serbia’s high expectations justified? Analysts seem to think that they are, especially as US–Serbia relations have been steadily improving for years under both Trump and Biden.
“The government in Belgrade has made three major investments in partnership with the future Trump administration: the relationship with Richard Grenell, the agreement with Kushner, and the delivery of ammunition to Israel to regain access to the Israeli lobby and, through that, access to the White House,” says Vuksanovic.
Richard Grenell was the special envoy for negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo and a frequent visitor to Belgrade between 2019 and 2021 during Trump’s first term in office. In 2023, President Vucic awarded him the Order of the Serbian Flag, First Class, for his significant contribution to strengthening peaceful cooperation and friendly relations between Serbia and the US.
Donald Trump Jr. visited Belgrade in September 2023 and met with a group of Serbian businessmen to discuss potential investments, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner also has business ventures in Belgrade.
Serbia signed a contract with Kushner’s company to revitalize the former headquarters of the Yugoslav Ministry of Defense in Belgrade, parts of which were destroyed during NATO’s bombardment of the country in 1999.
There are plans to build two high-rise buildings with apartments and hotels on the site. Although the contract itself has not been made public, The New York Times reported in March that the investment is worth $500 million (€485 million) and that the Serbian state is expected to receive 22% of the profits.
Trump more interested in Eastern Europe?
Velebit is confident that the Trump administration will focus more on Eastern than on Western Europe.
“For them, controlling Russian influence, but also curbing Turkish influence, will be important. That’s why the relationship with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Serbia will be crucial,” Velebit concludes.
So, does this mean Serbia could shift its course from East to West?
“Western countries have always had the majority share — the larger stake in Serbia and the Balkans — compared to Russia and China,” says Vuksanovic. “But I believe that of all Serbia’s Western partners, the United States will be the most important for Belgrade, as long as Trump is in power. Moreover, the main tension in relations with Trump and his administration will come not from Kosovo or Russia, but from relations with China,” he concludes.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan
