The first round of the presidential election in Greece is set for January 25, with more rounds to follow. But the winner already seems clear: Konstantinos Tasoulas, a member of the conservative New Democracy party who was parliament speaker up until a few days ago.
Tasoulas is expected to need four rounds to gain enough votes from lawmakers to win the election. That’s because the right-wing conservative candidate lacks the bipartisan luster to secure the necessary two-thirds majority of parliament, or 200 of 300 available votes, to win in an earlier round.
In 2020, Greek’s current president, Katerina Sakellaropoulou, breezed through the election with 261 votes. By contrast, Tasoulas probably won’t even be able to gather the 180 votes required in the third presidential election round — a provision that’s been in place since the Greek junta dictatorship ended in 1974. In the fourth election round, thanks to a constitutional amendment in 2019, a ruling majority of 151 parliamentarians would suffice.
That would make Tasoulas the first Greek president to hold the state’s highest office, a predominantly ceremonial position, without the approval of at least one of the major opposition parties. It looks like only some members of the Spartans, a far-right party that succeeded the now-banned right-wing extremist Golden Dawn party, will support Tasoulas, a prospect he seems none too pleased about.
Three opposing candidates
Already, Tasoulas, 65, is the first candidate to have to beat multiple opposing candidates. Until now, Greece has seen more consensus than competition during presidential elections.
When Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced on January 15 what many perceived as a partisan candidacy of the parliamentary speaker, the social-democratic Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) nominated a candidate: the former Labor Minister Tassos Giannitsis, known for an unsuccessful attempt to institute sweeping pension reforms in the early 2000s.
The center-left SYRIZA party, or what’s left of it following a split in 2023, also tapped its own candidate: Louka Katseli, who served as economic minister under the last PASOK-led administration. In 2011, in the throes of the eurozone debt crisis, she made a name for herself as a defender of small debt holders against big bank seizures.
Finally, the new ultraconservative party Niki, or Victory, has also put forth a candidate: the little-known jurist Kostas Kyriakou. Niki party leader Dimitris Natsios once called Kyriakou “a heroic political prisoner of Enver Hoxha’s regime in Albania.”
The parties are aware that their candidates have little chance of winning the election. Ultimately, Tasoulas of the New Democracy party will most likely succeed.
A swing to the right
By tapping Tasoulas, Prime Minister Mitsotakis has broken with 50 years of political tradition. Until now, conservative administrations have proposed progressive presidential candidates, and vice versa.
Five years ago, Mitsotakis nominated a woman, the progressive Sakellaropoulou, for the highest state office in another political first. At the time, she was serving as president of the Council of State, Greece’s highest administrative court.
Sakellaropoulou comfortably won the first presidential election round, and many expect she could have easily remained in office for another five years this time around. She’s been a reserved and widely respected president, and it seemed certain she would have been reelected with another easy margin.
Therefore, the remaining questions are why Mitsotakis didn’t propose her this time and why the head of government did not seek a more unifying candidate.
The answer is that Sakellaropoulou was not popular with the government’s right wing. According to the more conservative forces within the New Democracy party, she was too “woke,” too liberal and too open toward minorities and alternative lifestyles. For example, in 2024, she publicly supported Greece introducing same-sex marriage.
Mitsotakis did not propose Sakellaropoulou for a second term to not antagonize his right-wing delegates. Instead of nominating her or another progressive politician, he chose the conservative Tasoulas.
If anything, Mitsotakis, who sees himself as a liberal reformer, appears to feel threatened by the right.
Left of the New Democracy party, opposition parties are weak and fragmented, while parties on the right are gaining strength. In the 2024 European parliamentary elections, right-wing populist and far-right extremist parties gathered almost 20% of the vote, and they’re only expected to grow stronger.
Until now, no strong personality seems to have emerged in Greece’s right-wing circles who would also be attractive enough to a wider voter base, such as in the case of Italy or France. However, such a candidate could arise at any time and gather support.
Adapting to a new zeitgeist
A right-wing leading figure would likely be backed by other strongmen in this new Trump era. While Elon Musk has yet to anoint a Greek politician as a “savior of the nation,” many far-right extremists in Athens are certainly dreaming of the possibility.
In Mitsotakis’ political sphere, there seems to be a common understanding that the new zeitgeist is a hard swing to the right. And proposing a conservative candidate like Tasoulas as president sits quite well with that, seeing that he’s cozy with the party’s nationalist wing.
Tasoulas started his political career as the private secretary of Evangelos Averoff, who headed the New Democracy party between 1981 and 1984. Working with the ultraconservative Averoff left a profound impression on Tasoulas. He was elected into parliament for the first time in 2000 and served as culture minister and deputy defense minister, among other things, before becoming speaker in 2019.
Greece’s presumptive next president is well-educated and has a sense of humor. But his most crucial trait is his loyalty to his party and its leader.
This article was originally written in German.
