Analysts argue Trump’s Gaza plan derails progress toward Israeli-Saudi normalization

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — US President Donald Trump’s plan to take over Gaza will imperil attempts to forge landmark ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel and fuel anti-American sentiment in the oil-rich kingdom, some analysts are warning.

Trump announced the plan to redevelop Gaza, and oust its more than two million residents, during a joint press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday.

Netanyahu, a longtime proponent of Saudi normalization, has applauded Trump’s proposal as a solution for Gaza on the “day after” the war there, which was sparked when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists stormed southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.

However, Trump’s proposal has prompted a global backlash and enraged the Arab world, making it difficult for the Saudis to consider normalization.

“If this is going to be his policy, he shut the door on Saudi recognition of Israel,” James Dorsey, researcher at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore, told AFP.

Recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia, home to Islam’s holiest sites, is seen as a grand prize of Middle East diplomacy intended to calm chronic tensions in the region.

But Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter and the Middle East’s largest economy, now faces the specter of instability on its borders if neighboring Jordan and Egypt suddenly house large numbers of Gaza exiles.

At the same time, Riyadh must maintain cordial relations with Washington, its longtime security guarantor and bulwark against Iran, which is also Israel’s chief adversary.

The Islamic Republic operates an “axis of resistance” network of regional terror proxies that includes Yemen’s Houthi rebels — against whom Saudi Arabia has waged a bloody war — as well as Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, all of whom are sworn to destroying Israel.

“When it comes to security, Saudi Arabia has nowhere to go but to Washington,” Dorsey said. “There’s nobody else. It’s not China. They’re not willing and they’re not able.”

“And post-Ukraine, do you want to rely on Russia?”

Quick reaction

The Saudis were engaged in tentative talks on normalization via Washington until the outbreak of the Gaza war, when they paused the negotiations and hardened their position.

They reacted with unusual speed to Trump’s proposal.

At around 4 a.m. Saudi time — about an hour after the comments — Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry posted a statement on X that “reaffirms its unequivocal rejection of… attempts to displace the Palestinian people from their land.”

In the same statement, the Saudis rejected Netanyahu’s comment that normalization was “going to happen” and Trump’s claim that Riyadh had dropped its longtime demand that any deal include a credible pathway to a Palestinian state — repeating their insistence on this precondition, which is a red line for Netanyahu’s hard-right government.

#Statement | The Foreign Ministry affirms that Saudi Arabia’s position on the establishment of a Palestinian state is firm and unwavering. HRH Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Crown Prince and Prime Minister clearly and unequivocally reaffirmed this stance. pic.twitter.com/0uuoq8h12I

— Foreign Ministry ???????? (@KSAmofaEN) February 5, 2025

Trump’s plan carries real risks for Riyadh, which is throwing everything at an ambitious post-oil economic makeover that relies on stability to attract business and tourism.

If Gazans are displaced to Egypt and Jordan, it “will weaken two countries essential to regional stability and particularly to Saudi security,” said Saudi researcher Aziz Alghashian.

“Trump’s plan, coupled with Netanyahu’s approach, poses major risks for Saudi Arabia. It highlights that they are not true partners for peace in Riyadh’s eyes — especially Netanyahu, who appears to want all the benefits without making concessions.”

‘Making normalization harder’

Trump’s declarations “will further destabilize the region and fuel anti-American sentiment, particularly in Saudi Arabia,” said Anna Jacobs, of the International Crisis Group think tank.

“He is making Saudi-Israel normalization harder, not easier.”

Andreas Krieg of King’s College London said Saudi Arabia would not agree meekly to normalization if ordered by Washington.

Prior to the Gaza war, the Saudis were negotiating for security guarantees and help in building a civilian nuclear program in return for Israeli ties.

“They are not a US vassal state and so they’re not just taking a diktat from Trump,” said Krieg. “And I think it will stand firm on their positions, willing to negotiate here and there. But the principal red lines remain.

“Nobody in Saudi Arabia has an interest in selling out Palestinian statehood. That is the last and the most important bargaining chip that the Saudis have in terms of authority and legitimacy in the Arab and Muslim world.”

But the question is how Saudi Arabia and its 39-year-old de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, will proceed.

“I don’t think that the Saudis will take any major steps now,” said Krieg. “They obviously have their own levers that they can use for pressure on America, particularly in the energy sector. I don’t think the Saudis will want to use it at this point.”

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