How significant is Doug Ford’s historic third majority?

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The last time a political party in Ontario pulled off three or more consecutive majority wins was the long run by the Progressive Conservatives between 1945 and 1971, under different leaders.

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Doug Ford, who has said he would very much like to be premier “forever,” is the first premier to score three back-to-back-to-back majority mandates since Leslie Frost’s third majority win as Conservative premier in 1959.

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The Conservatives have had a long history ruling in Ontario. “Is this a new, like, dynasty of the Conservatives? I’m not sure it is, and I would be very hesitant to think about that,” said Western University political science professor Laura Stephenson.

“Certainly the other parties have not been strong contenders,” Stephenson said. “But there have been some extenuating circumstances,” including U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and the federal Liberals’ disarray.

Given the upheaval, Ford offered a “safe pair of hands,” she said. “We really don’t know what this election would have looked like without the turmoil we’re seeing elsewhere,” she said. “I’m not sure it’s politics as normal.”

Ford won a third consecutive majority Thursday, with the Conservatives capturing or leading in 80 seats, the NDP 27, Liberals 14 and Green Party two.

Ford sought to score the “largest mandate in Ontario’s history” when he called the snap election a month ago. His “three-peat” victory puts him in a fairly exclusive group of individual leaders who have won three or more consecutive majority governments in Canada. Former Liberal prime minister Jean Chrétien was the first prime minister to capture three majority wins since Sir Wilfrid Laurier. Former Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall and his Saskatchewan Party secured a third straight majority in 2016. The 1966 Manitoba general election ended in a third straight majority win for the Progressive Conservative Party led by the late Dufferin “Duff” Roblin.

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While the Conservatives held power in Ontario for much of the second half of the 20th century, the Liberals won electoral victories from 1867 to 1902, including under Oliver Mowat, one of the Fathers of Confederation who won six consecutive majorities from 1871 to 1894.

Ontario’s other three major party leaders said February’s early election was wholly unnecessary given Ford already had a large majority government with well over a year left in its mandate.

The PCs won 83 out of 124 seats in the 2022 election, with the NDP capturing 31, the Liberals eight and the Greens one. At dissolution, the Tories had 79 seats, the NDP 28, the Liberals held nine and the Greens two. There were six independents.

When asked by reporters on his final campaign stop Wednesday if he would seek a fourth term, Ford responded, “Man, I want to be premier forever.”

Ford pitched his party as the only force capable of propping up Ontario’s economy and standing up to Trump and his tariff threats and annexation bullying, even floating the idea of cutting off power exports to the U.S. in retaliation for the tariff threats.

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Stephenson said the parties challenging Ford aren’t “super strong” and are dealing with new leaders. However, the discussions and the topics also haven’t been about Ontario issues, she said.

“When a voter goes to the polls, I know the collection of things they may be thinking about. Some of the most important to consider in today’s environment would be a safe pair of hands to guide Ontario through challenging economic times,” she said.

“What I mean by that is some reputation, and some feelings of competence and, I guess, some comfort level that the person is able to handle these challenges ahead. And that’s not always the time that you start to look for a new leader. That’s when you start to think, ‘Well, how bad is what we have right now?’

“Certainly, there are all sorts of challenges we’ve seen with Ford,” Stephenson added. “He’s had his share of controversies as premier. The issue becomes, do you believe that the other leaders are better than Ford to deal with what is in front of us right now? That’s how I believe people are looking at things right now, I’ll be honest with you. Because we’re in this holding pattern. We’re literally holding our breath to figure out what’s going to happen,” she said.

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“We’re in a really weird time right now.”

It is significant that a leader has won a third straight majority, said Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto professor emeritus of political science.

“On the other hand, what is very interesting is that polls show that his party is much more popular than he is, which is very unusual,” Wiseman said.

An Angus Reid poll published in December, then the latest quarterly data on Canadians’ assessments of their premiers, found Ford was the “least approved-of” premier, garnering the approval of just 34 per cent of his constituents.

We’re in a really weird time right now

“One way to look at it — and this is all off the top of my head — is that people are essentially voting for party and they’re ignoring leadership,” Wiseman said.

However, he also expects Ford’s approval ratings in the next poll will be much higher. “I’m actually quite impressed by Ford,” he said.

“I think he’s been politically very astute, of course very opportunistic, since he first got elected, and the way he’s been playing the whole Trump tariff threat has served him well, although it’s not phoney. It’s just fallen into his lap politically. Economically he really is worried. He makes it like he’s Captain Canada — he’s going to fight these tariffs. Trump is afraid of him rather than the others.”

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The Ontario Conservative party’s winning streak between the 1940s and early 1970s came during a period of dynamic economic growth, Wiseman said. Incomes and standards of living went up dramatically across the country, but especially in Ontario. “There was less anger about, ‘What’s the quality of your life like?’ People in the ’50s would say, “Hey, wow, compared to what my parents were experiencing in the ’30s, it’s a piece of cake.’”

“It was relatively easy to govern Ontario at that time,” Wiseman said. “The way it works in politics is that governments don’t get elected so much as governments get defeated.”

Ford’s “forever” comment may have captured headlines. However, “as long as you are in a job you can’t say, ‘I’m going to be stepping down at some indeterminant point in the future,’” Wiseman said. “You can’t be a dead duck. Who’s going to turn themselves into a dead duck? Then nobody listens to you from the minute you say it.”

“Probably all he meant was, ‘I’m enjoying my job,’ and he knows it. He knows he’s going to win.”

National Post, with additional reporting by The Canadian Press

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