Carney and Trump are only at the beginning of redefining the Canada-U.S. relationship

In 2013, when he was running to unseat a Conservative government, Justin Trudeau said there were a “few very big things the prime minister of Canada needs to get right,” one of which was “building a constructive working relationship with the president of the United States.”

That of course was long before the president of the United States was Donald Trump — long before even the idea of a president like Trump was remotely fathomable. (Trudeau’s criticism at the time was that Stephen Harper had bungled the relationship with Barack Obama, to the detriment of the Keystone XL pipeline.)

In 2025, amid the reality of Trump’s second term, the question for the new prime minister is what that “constructive working relationship” should look like now — or even how constructive any relationship can possibly be.

Two days before Mark Carney went to the White House, Trump was asked by the host of Meet the Press whether he would consider using military force against this country. He did not say the idea was unthinkable or preposterous or abhorrent. He merely said he thought it was “highly unlikely.”

In 2013, that sort of comment might have dominated all discussion for days. In 2025, it merits only passing attention.

Mere moments before Carney arrived on Tuesday, Trump posted to his own social media platform the false claim that the United States is “subsidizing Canada by $200 Billion Dollars a year.” Repeating his insistence that trade with Canada is largely unnecessary, Trump wrote that, “We don’t need their Cars, we don’t need their Energy, we don’t need their Lumber, we don’t need ANYTHING they have, other than their friendship.”

Then came the made-for-television spectacle of an Oval Office meeting — the contrived appearances before the cameras that have become objects of acute fascination since Trump and various members of his cabinet berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February.

The Oval Office show

In between taking credit for the Liberal Party’s election result and boasting about how the Oval Office had been redecorated, Trump was complimentary toward Carney. Carney, in turn, referred to Trump as a “transformational president” — a neatly chosen adjective — and stressed that Canada and the United States were “stronger when we work together.” 

Over the course of the half hour that ensued — as Trump talked about not just Canada, but various other topics, including his grievances with Trudeau and former foreign affairs minister Chrystia Freeland — Carney seemed to be deciding in real time how to walk the line between sticking up for his country and provoking a televised blow-up. But the prime minister was seemingly prepared to strongly make at least one point if — or rather, when — Trump reiterated his desire to make Canada the 51st state.

“If I may,” Carney said, “as you know from real estate, there are some places that are never for sale.”

“That’s true,” Trump said, seemingly charmed by Carney’s appeal to his previous career.

“And having met with the owners of Canada over the course of the campaign, the last several months, it’s not for sale, won’t be for sale ever.”

Twenty minutes later, after Trump had declined to let the matter drop completely — “never say never,” he said at a couple points — Carney underlined his point.

“Respectfully,” Carney said, “Canadians’ view on this is not going to change.” 

There were other moments of subtle pushback, but the headline moment of the day was understandably the prime minister’s statement that this country is not for sale — a statement that was remarkable for the fact that it even needed to be said.

There is only everything else that needs to be settled.

‘Redefining the relationship’

However different the occupant of the Oval Office, the basic economic and security realities remain the same. And so there remains a need for this country and its prime minister to maintain a working relationship with the United States and its president.

Even in a world where Canada builds new alliances and diversifies its trade, it will still be necessary — and preferable — for Canada and the United States to work together in some capacity (more than likely some significant capacity).

But the new parameters of that relationship are still unclear.

Asked whether there was anything Carney could do to convince the United States to drop its tariffs on Canadian goods, Trump simply said, “no.” Asked what concessions he was seeking from Canada, Trump only said, “friendship.”

Trump suggested he wanted to get to a place where the United States did not purchase any vehicles that were made in Canada — something that would seemingly require the complete disentanglement of a completely integrated auto sector. The president said he didn’t want to import any steel or aluminum from Canada. He referred to the trade deal he signed with Canada in Mexico in 2019 as both “good” and “transitional.” 

At the very least, Trump seemed kindly disposed toward his country’s northern neighbour.

“Regardless of anything, we’re going to be friends with Canada,” he said.

Not all Canadians would entirely agree with that sentiment right now. 

Speaking to reporters at the Canadian Embassy after a working lunch with the president and his team, Carney said the two sides had a “very constructive” and “wide-ranging” discussion. He said he was “heartened” by how “concrete” the conversation was.

But Carney also began his media availability by saying that, “really today marked the end of the beginning of a process of the United States and Canada redefining that relationship of working together.” In addition to underlining his central premise — that Canada’s old relationship with the United States is “over” — this was a passing reference to something Winston Churchill said after the Second Battle of El Alamein, an allied victory that came when the Second World War was still three years away from being over.

In other words, there is a long way to go — and much more to figure out than could possibly be settled in a single afternoon at the White House.