Turkmenistan is one of the world’s most isolated – and little understood – countries. The picture its government presents to the world, and in propaganda to its own people, is of a neutral nation, rich in resources, embarking on a golden age of prosperity.
But there is a vast gap between that narrative and the reality of life for the people of Turkmenistan.
In a report published earlier this year by the Central Asia Program at George Washington University, researchers at the Progres Foundation take a critical look at human development and inequality in Turkmenistan.
The Progres Foundation is a non-profit organization based in the United States that supports progressive initiatives contributing to understanding of social realities and to shaping a new vision and approaches to sustainable human development in Turkmenistan. It publishes an online analytical journal at Progres.online and promotes public health literacy at Saglyk.org. The latter proved to be a critical resource in 2020 when the Turkmen government maintained that it had not detected a single case of COVID-19 in the country, contrary to reality.
In the following interview, researcher and author of the abovementioned report, Ogulgerek Palwanova, dives into the neglect of the Turkmen people by the government in Ashgabat, the importance of adding nuance to our understanding of human development, and how both outsiders and Turkmen can navigate the disparate and often distorted information in and about Turkmenistan.
The report states, in its introduction, that “Turkmenistan’s greatest yet most neglected asset is its people.” In what ways has Ashgabat neglected the Turkmen people?
The leadership in Ashgabat has neglected the Turkmen people in several crucial ways. Most notably, it has enabled and sustained widespread corruption, which has become an entrenched part of daily life – from obtaining a driver’s license or enrolling in university to accessing employment or adequate healthcare. Corruption dictates who gets access to essential services and opportunities. For instance, only 3 out of 10 secondary school graduates continue to tertiary education, largely due to limited university quotas that foster bribery, where admission often depends on money or connections rather than merit. Healthcare is similarly affected. Turkmenistan has the lowest life expectancy in Central Asia at 69.3 years. Despite having a GNI per capita 186.3 percent higher than Tajikistan’s, Turkmen citizens live on average 2.3 years less, and lose 7.6 years to illness and poor health.
Most troubling is the government’s refusal to acknowledge these systemic issues. Instead, it hides them from the international community and misleads its own citizens through propaganda, claiming free higher education and showcasing modern hospitals. By prioritizing the sale of natural resources over investing in its people and building a knowledge driven economy, the Turkmen government is robbing its citizens of the opportunity for a better future.
The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) bases its Human Development Index (HDI) broadly on three indicators – longevity, education, and income. How useful is the HDI in measuring the reality of life in Turkmenistan? What does the index obscure or fail to illuminate?
While the Human Development Index (HDI) offers a simplified snapshot of development, it fails to capture the true reality of life in Turkmenistan for several reasons:
First, the HDI overlooks critical dimensions of well-being such as inequality, poverty, personal security, gender equity, and ethnic disparities. The Gender Development Index and Gender Inequality Index do not include Turkmenistan. In a context like Turkmenistan – where there is no official poverty line and reliable data is limited – these omissions are significant. The index gives the impression of steady progress, while many of the underlying challenges remain hidden.
Second, the income data distorts reality. The HDI relies on Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, but this average conceals deep income inequality. Meanwhile, the Inequality Adjusted HDI does not include Turkmenistan. In Turkmenistan, most national wealth is concentrated in the hands of a small elite, while a large portion of the population lives in poverty or just above it. For example, the top 1 percent is estimated to control around 20 percent of the wealth – not counting illicit wealth from corruption and bribery, which is widespread in the public sector. Hence, the income component of the HDI presents a misleading picture of prosperity.
Third, the GNI is artificially inflated due to the dual exchange rate system in Turkmenistan where the official exchange rate is fixed at 3.5 manat per U.S. dollar (USD) while the the black-market rate hovers around 19.5 manat per USD. The HDI calculation uses the official rate, which significantly overstates GNI per capita. When adjusted for a more realistic average exchange rate, the GNI per capita (2019) drops from $7,130 to about $2,655 – which would reclassify Turkmenistan from an upper-middle-income country to a lower-middle-income one.
Why is it important to bring discussion of various inequalities into our understanding of the reality of life in Turkmenistan? How does inequality impact the lives of Turkmen?
Inequality is central to understanding life in Turkmenistan because it shapes who has access to basic services and opportunities – and who is left behind. For example, only 2 percent of poorer women complete tertiary education, compared to 23 percent of wealthier men in urban areas. This stark gap reveals how income, gender, and geography limit life chances for many Turkmens.
Inequality affects more than just access to education – it impacts health, employment, and representation. Women lack decision-making power not only in public life – where women account for 21.7 percent of posts in local governments and 22.4 percent of managerial positions – but also in their private lives. Nearly 60 percent of women in Turkmenistan lack the autonomy to make decisions about their own health, contraception, or consent to sex, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
These disparities are not just unfair – they limit the country’s potential by keeping large parts of the population from contributing fully to society and the economy. Addressing inequality is not only a moral imperative – it is essential for inclusive and sustainable development of Turkmenistan. Without it, progress will remain uneven and many will continue to be excluded from the benefits of growth.
The Turkmen government is not particularly transparent, and what statistics Ashgabat does provide are not necessarily reliable. For example, the report notes the difference between the official unemployment rate (typically reported at 4-5 percent) and what the actual unemployment rate is believed to be (60 percent). How can outsiders navigate this information vacuum? How can Turkmen do the same?
Navigating the information vacuum in Turkmenistan requires a critical and multi-sourced approach. Given the lack of transparency and the unreliability of official statistics both international observers and Turkmen citizens must be cautious and discerning consumers of information.
For outsiders, it is essential to triangulate data by comparing information from multiple sources: international institutions, independent think tanks, academic research, investigative journalism, and reports from exile-based Turkmen organizations. These alternative sources often offer insights that are unavailable or suppressed within the country. Outsiders should also treat official data with healthy skepticism, always asking who benefits from the narrative being promoted and how the numbers might be manipulated.
For Turkmen citizens, accessing alternative viewpoints can be more difficult due to censorship and fear of reprisals, but it is equally crucial. When possible, they should seek out independent media and diaspora-led reporting. Communities can also share observations and lived experiences, which may reveal trends and challenges that official statistics ignore. Personal networks and informal information-sharing – when done safely – can help bridge the gap between reality and propaganda.
In both cases, readers should be aware that no single source has a monopoly on truth. Accepting uncertainty, questioning narratives, and resisting the urge to take any data at face value are essential strategies in understanding Turkmenistan, where facts are often deliberately obscured.
In making recommendations, the report urges international organizations to “be careful not to become complicit in masking the serious problems that exist in Turkmenistan nor aid in perpetuating these problems by giving a veneer of legitimacy to the government’s policies.” How can international organizations, and foreign governments, balance seemingly conflicting impulses: the perceived need to maintain a relationship, any relationship, with the Turkmen government vs. being open and honest about conditions in the country?
Maintaining a relationship with the Turkmen government and being honest about the country’s conditions are not mutually exclusive. International organizations and foreign governments can – and should – pursue both. Choosing silence for the sake of diplomacy risks becoming complicit in the very problems they might later seek to address. Engagement should not come at the cost of integrity or truth and facts.
Importantly, the Turkmen government places significant value on its international image and its relationships with foreign governments and international organizations. It wants to be seen as open, cooperative, and a respected peer on the global stage. International actors should use this willingness to engage – and their privileged position – to initiate open conversations and promote real progress on pressing challenges affecting human development in the country.
Strong, long-term relationships are built on mutual respect and the courage to speak the truth. Moreover, because many people in Turkmenistan are unable to speak freely due to fear of reprisals, international actors also carry a moral responsibility to raise concerns and advocate for sustainable solutions and reforms. Constructive and respectful criticism can help build trust, encourage reform, and ultimately benefit both sides.
Finally, Turkmenistan is not often discussed in global media, at least not with any degree of seriousness. Why is it important for the global community to understand Turkmenistan and pay attention to developments in the country?
Turkmenistan may not dominate global headlines, but it’s a country that matters – both for regional stability and for broader global concerns like energy security, human rights, and climate change. As one of the most closed and authoritarian states in the world, the lack of attention allows serious human development challenges, repression, and misinformation to persist unchecked. This silence enables the government to avoid accountability while its citizens suffer in isolation.
From a geopolitical standpoint, Turkmenistan holds one of the largest natural gas reserves in the world, and its strategic location bordering countries like Iran, Afghanistan, and China means developments there can have wider regional ripple effects. In addition, issues like environmental degradation, forced labor in state-run sectors, or migration due to poverty and repression are not contained within national borders – they eventually affect neighboring countries and international partners.
Paying attention to Turkmenistan also signals to its people that the world sees them, cares about their rights, and hasn’t forgotten them. When the international community ignores a country like Turkmenistan, it sends a message that some lives – and some struggles – matter less. By shining a light on what’s happening, the global community can help foster transparency, promote human dignity, and support long-term change, even in the most challenging contexts.
