Could Vinícius Júnior really leave Real Madrid for Saudi Arabia? Here’s what we know

It shouldn’t be that difficult. Real Madrid are the world’s most successful club, the reigning LaLiga and European champions. Vinícius Júnior is one of their brightest stars, last year’s Ballon d’Or runner-up and FIFA’s The Best winner. His goals helped Madrid win two of the last three Champions League finals. So why is there nonstop speculation that Vinícius, who’s only 24, is set to leave Madrid for the Saudi Pro League? And — with the forward’s contract at the Bernabéu due to expire in June 2027 — just how likely is that outcome?

Listen to Vinícius, and there seems to be no doubt that it’s Real Madrid for life. “My next step is improving my game, continuing to develop, and helping the biggest club in the world,” the Brazil international said last month. “I dreamed of getting here. That’s my dream, to think big, and win more trophies in this shirt.”

Vinícius passed a major milestone in January, becoming one of only 23 players to score 100 or more goals for Madrid. “It’s important for me to be a part of this club’s history,” he said. “Let’s hope I carry on here for many more years. Ronaldo Nazario, Cristiano [Ronaldo] … they’re players who defined an era at this club. Let’s hope I can follow in their footsteps.”

Those don’t sound like the words of a player who’s planning an imminent departure. And speaking to Brazilian TV after Madrid’s 3-2 Champions League win at Manchester City on Feb. 11, for which he was named man of the match, Vinícius went even further. “It’s always exciting to talk to Real Madrid about my renewal,” he said. “I have a contract until 2027, but I’ve always said I want to play here for a long time… God willing, in the coming days, the negotiations can be resolved.”

Coach Carlo Ancelotti has been keen to spread a message of calm, too. “As far as I’m aware — and I have direct information from the player — he’s very happy here,” Ancelotti said last month. “They’re individual decisions. But I think he’s thinking about choosing glory.”

It’s a nice line, with an implicit follow-up: glory, over endless wealth. But that’s exactly what you’d expect Ancelotti to say. And nobody genuinely expects contract talks to be finalised as quickly as Vinícius enthusiastically suggested in Manchester.

The words of Saudi Pro League CEO Omar Mugharbel, speaking last month during the Spanish Supercopa in Jeddah, warned against dismissing the idea of Vinícius choosing the Saudi Pro League. “We don’t dream,” Mugharbel told Marca. “It’s a matter of time, and negotiations.”

The Saudi interest is real, and so is Vinícius’ willingness to entertain the prospect, a position that strengthens his leverage in talks with Madrid. Those negotiations look like they may become a high-stakes arm wrestling match between player and club.

Additional reporting by Rodrigo Faez and Gustavo Hofman

What is Vinícius’ contract situation? And what’s the timeframe for renewal talks?

Vinícius’ current contract was formally announced by Real Madrid on Oct. 31, 2023 although the terms had been agreed to over a year earlier in July 2022, just weeks after he scored the only goal of the Champions League final against Liverpool in Paris. The contract expires on June 30, 2027. A source told ESPN that the player’s take-home pay at Madrid is now €17 million a year ($17.8m) after tax, which includes a substantial bonus he received for winning FIFA’s The Best Men’s Player in December.

Madrid’s typical routine is to begin contract negotiations with stars when they have two years left on their deals. It’s a common-sense approach designed to avoid uncomfortable, final-year standoffs when players have increasing leverage. That timeline would mean talks with Vinícius were due to commence this summer, but in this case, the club was aware of interest from Saudi Arabia and made an early first move.

Sources told ESPN earlier this month that Madrid had contacted Vinícius’ representatives, saying that they wanted to kick off negotiations. The first step would be to get an idea of the player’s salary expectations. That significant development came last week, when the club was informed of Vinícius’ demands. The details, and that all-important number, have not been made public. A follow-up meeting took place on Friday, between the second leg of the Champions League playoff against Manchester City and Madrid hosting Girona on Sunday (stream LIVE at 10:15 a.m. ET on ESPN+ in the U.S.).

Is Vinícius really considering leaving Madrid?

Madrid took a gamble on Vinícius, agreeing a €45m deal to sign him when he was just 16 years old, mere days after he had made his professional debut. It’s a bet that’s paid off handsomely since, as Vinícius has repaid Madrid’s faith with goals and individual and team trophies. Sources say that he remains hugely grateful to Madrid for the support and patience the club has shown him during his inconsistent development from rough diamond into the finished article.

Despite that, sources say that Vinícius has felt for some months now that there are doubts within the club about his role in the team over the medium-term. Part of that relates to the arrivals of Jude Bellingham in July 2023 and Kylian Mbappé last summer. Before their signings, Vinícius was Madrid’s undisputed star. Now, he’s one of three.

Sources told ESPN that Vinícius also suspects that both Bellingham and Mbappé will receive more support in the pursuit of future awards like the Ballon d’Or. In the 2024 men’s ranking, the trio finished second (Vinícius), third (Bellingham) and sixth (Mbappé). The votes for Madrid players among the Ballon d’Or panel were split; so too, thinks Vinícius, are the club’s loyalties. Vinícius loves playing for the club, but sources said he wants to feel valued — that Madrid appreciates what he has achieved and what he can still achieve.

There are other issues, too: the near-weekly hostile reception that Vinícius faces from opposition fans in Spain, which has — all too frequently — involved racist abuse. Vinícius has bravely led the fight to tackle Spanish football’s racism problem, but he has also admitted that the incidents leave him with “less and less desire to play.” The attraction of a fresh start in a new league is obvious. But there was no realistic alternative until the Saudi Pro League came calling.

How tempting is the offer from Saudi Arabia?

ESPN first reported on Saudi interest in Vinícius in August last year, with a source saying that the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) had approached Vinícius’ representatives. An annual salary of up to €350m had been mentioned, and the idea was for Vinícius to become one of the faces of the Saudis’ 2034 World Cup project. His likely destination was Al Ahli. It was a deal that wouldn’t just make Vinícius the highest-paid footballer in the world; it would make him the highest-paid athlete in the history of sports. Another source later spoke of a potential five-year, €200m-per-season deal, in a country with no income tax.

Early reports in the Spanish media claimed that Vinícius had rejected the approach, and he was committed to staying at Madrid. But a source told ESPN that was not the case. Instead, Vinícius’ decision was not to take any decision at all. He had postponed making a judgment on his long-term future until the end of the 2024-25 season. Another factor was whether or not Vinícius would win last year’s Ballon d’Or. Madrid and Vinícius believed that he would, although their confidence proved to be unfounded.

The Saudi interest didn’t end there. Sources told ESPN that the Saudis got back in touch with Vinícius’ camp in December, keen to keep lines of communication open. No concrete proposal was made, but the message was: don’t forget about us. There have been no new developments since December, and a source told ESPN that Vinícius’ agents had been irritated by the lack of a formal offer. At present, Vinícius is closer to staying than going, the source said.

Would Madrid agree to a transfer? And for what kind of fee?

Vinícius’ €1 billion release clause is prohibitive, even for the PIF. That means that if the Saudis want to secure the player before his contract expires in 2027, an agreement would have to be reached with Madrid on a transfer fee. Last summer, when they were made aware of Saudi interest, the club’s stated position was that Vinícius was not available for transfer, and they would not negotiate below that €1bn clause. But Vinícius’ camp felt that Madrid might be more open to that possibility in 2025.

Publicly, the club still treats Vinícius in a manner befitting one of its franchise players. They went above and beyond in their support of him in the Ballon d’Or debate, boycotting the Paris ceremony in protest when they discovered that Manchester City’s Rodri had beaten their man to the award. And Ancelotti continues to praise him at every opportunity. “People forget that with Vinícius we won the Champions League in Paris [in 2022] and in London [in 2024],” Ancelotti said last month. “He’s unquestionable as a player.”

However, there has also been internal frustration at aspects of Vinícius’ game, in particular his frequent yellow cards for dissent. Teammates and staff — who are mostly fond of him — have tried to help, without success. “[Vinícius] created a lot of chances, he provided an assist, and he got booked. Nothing new, business as usual,” Ancelotti joked after a second-half cameo at Leganés this month.

In terms of public relations, any transfer would have to be portrayed as Vinícius’ decision, not Madrid’s. And there is no consensus on what fee Madrid would likely accept. It would certainly exceed the world record, set when Paris Saint-Germain paid €222m to sign Neymar from Barcelona in 2017. A source told ESPN that the player’s camp believed there was internal disagreement at Madrid on the issue. Club president Florentino Pérez was reluctant to budge from the €1bn clause; others, like CEO José Ángel Sánchez, felt an offer between €350m and €400m would be acceptable.

What can we learn from Madrid’s previous contract standoffs?

When it comes to player departures from Real Madrid, the house almost always win. Their sense of timing is impeccable. Can you think of a player to whom they’ve regretted saying goodbye in recent years? The rule even applies to all-time greats, whose exits were once highly controversial. Cristiano Ronaldo left in 2018, unhappy at Madrid’s stance in contract talks, and joined Juventus for €100m. The team missed his goals, but hindsight suggests it was the right move.

The same could be said of former captain Sergio Ramos, who unceremoniously left in 2021 after his delayed response to a contract offer led to it being withdrawn. There was Raphaël Varane in 2021 and Casemiro in 2022, both signing for Manchester United for substantial fees. Even Karim Benzema’s surprise departure in 2023, joining Al Ittihad on a free transfer while he was the reigning Ballon d’Or, turned out OK: Madrid won a LaLiga and Champions League double the following season, with no need for a first-choice center-forward.

So precedent suggests that if Madrid were to let Vinícius go — for a world-record fee — they’d be fine. It would even mean Mbappé could play in his preferred position on the left of the attack.

All of this means that what once seemed unthinkable — Vinícius Junior, arguably the world’s best player, leaving Real Madrid while still approaching his peak — has become a real prospect. And even if he does end up agreeing to a lucrative new deal at Madrid — which on balance, is now the most likely scenario — the Saudi interest means that the club will have to work hard for it.

It’s the ultimate power move; to say he’d love to stay, but he’s also being offered the biggest contract in sports history, and then ask if there is anything more that Madrid can do.

No wonder Vinícius has been in no hurry to renew. He’s holding all the cards.